Friday, May 18, 2018

Wettest May 18 on record at International Falls, MN today 0.92" of rain so far! Scattered showers tonight-Saturday morning, highs Saturday 50s to lower 60s. Dry Sunday, highs 60s to around 70. Dry and 70s Monday

/Issued 5:30 PM CDT, Friday, May 18, 2018/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

20z HRRR model run
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop through 5:45 PM CDT, Friday, May 18, 2018.  An area of showers moving into north central Minnesota late this afternoon with movement of the rain toward the north/east.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model -- Simulated Radar Forecast from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM Saturday.  Showers pass through parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight, with possibly a few more showers developing Saturday afternoon in northern Wisconsin.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 water vapor satellite image from May 18, 2018 -- A complex pattern across the U.S. but the main takeaway is that the Northland looks to remain in a drier than normal weather pattern through the next several days with our only decent shot for some rain coming tonight and Saturday morning.













Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z Euro Ensemble model from May 18, 2018
















Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com
















It's been a dry spring in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin -- Here are some precipitation departures for Spring 2018 (From March 1 to May 17)

Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Grand Portage, Minnesota:  -4.16 inches below normal
Two Harbors, Minnesota:  -4.02 inches below normal
Duluth, Minnesota:  -3.44 inches below normal
Cloquet, Minnesota:  -3.23 inches below normal
Cass Lake, Minnesota:  -3.01 inches below normal
Grand Marais, Minnesota:  -2.97 inches below normal
Grand Rapids, Minnesota:  -2.92 inches below normal
Brainerd, Minnesota:  -2.39 inches below normal
International Falls, Minnesota:  -2.34 inches below normal

Weather Synopsis

Much warmer temperatures in most of the area today as winds shifted to the south, highs were in the 70s to lower 80s with much cooler temps closer to Lake Superior (mid 40s to mid 50s) due to an easterly breeze.  There was a cold front extending from northern Minnesota to western Minnesota with some rain occurring near that front today in western-northwest parts of the state.

Cold front moves through the Northland tonight through Saturday morning -- Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rain showers as that front moves through.  Not everyone will get rain, unfortunately, but some locations should be able to squeeze out up to a quarter inch or so of rain.

Mainly dry conditions return to the area Saturday afternoon through the middle of next week the way it looks now.

Lows tonight ranging from the lower 40s to upper 50s.  Highs for Saturday will be a little tricky, but in general expect temperatures to be in the 50s to lower 60s, but some parts of northwest Wisconsin could jump to around 70 degrees before Noon before falling a bit during the afternoon hours.  Highs for Sunday are expected to be in the 60s to lower 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Scattered showers possible mainly after 10 PM.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph and becoming light and variable late.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers possible mainly early.  Some clearing during the afternoon.  High 56 to 61.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 19

High:  63
Low:   42

Sunrise Saturday:  5:29 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:42 PM CDT

Tim