Monday, May 21, 2018

Scattered rain drops this evening; 70s and dry Tuesday; More humid mid to late week (60+ dew points) Risk for scattered showers/t-storms Wed night-Sat.

/Issued 5:30 PM CDT, Monday, May 21, 2018/

Source:  http://weather.rap.ucar.edu



















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday, May 21, 2018 -- A nice looking system passing through the upper Midwest today but the bark is worse than the bite, very little moisture in place, so we're just seeing some patchy light showers or drizzle today in central/southern Minnesota.












Source:  https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov
















Source:  https://weathermodels.com

Data from the European Computer Model -- 12z run from May 21, 2018

The Minnesota Modified Nationals race takes place this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, May 26-27 at the Ogilvie Raceway in Ogilvie, Minnesota.  Right now the weather looks good with warm daytime highs in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows around 60 to 65 degrees.  Could be a few showers and thunderstorms around the area especially on Saturday the way it looks now, but coverage looks isolated to scattered at best meaning not everyone will get hit/wet.



















Weather Synopsis

Goes-16 visible satellite imagery shows more sun up north and more clouds farther south this afternoon, and this is also seen in temperatures this afternoon which range from the middle 70s in northern Minnesota or north of Highway 2 with cooler temperatures ranging from about 60 to 70 degrees south of Highway 2 in east central Minnesota and over all of northwest Wisconsin -- A light lake breeze closer to Lake Superior kept temperatures in the 50s and 60s today.

A few showers or sprinkles will remain possible tonight mainly for east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as a weak wave continues to lift E-NE across the region, otherwise for tonight will have partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s, but a few spots especially up north could drop into the 30s again.

Partly to mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 70s.  Any lake breeze looks to be on the light side so it should be a fairly mild day even close to Lake Superior.

Will see some changes take place mid to late week as humidity and instability begin to increase across our area.  Forecast models are showing dew points getting into the upper 50s to middle 60s by Thursday and Friday with rather high amounts of instability (fuel/energy in the atmosphere) This along with an approaching warm front and cold front moving out of the northern Plains and western High Plains region should produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Northland from Wednesday night through Saturday -- A few storms could be on the strong side later this week, but the risk for severe weather looks low with weak winds aloft and rather weak shear in our area.

Should also be noted that even though there are chances for scattered showers and storms Wednesday night through Saturday, not everyone will get wet.  This is the kind of pattern where some locations get hit while others get missed completely.  It's impossible to predict what area/s will see these storms until the day of the event.

Highs for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are expected to be in the 70s and 80s although it will be cooler at times near Lake Superior.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Sprinkles or light showers possible mainly this evening.  Low 44 to 49.  Wind light and variable around 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 71 to 76.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 75 to 80 but it could be cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for May 22

High:  64
Low:   42

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:26 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:45 PM CDT

Tim