Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Isolated showers this evening; Breezy and cooler Wednesday (Easterly wind) Rainy, very cool and breezy Thursday. July 2017 Climate Stats in this post

/Issued 7:43 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 1, 2017/

Note:  There are some differences in the computer models on the track of Thursday's storm with the majority of them far enough north which would give our area a decent rainfall, but one computer model (RGEM) has the system a little farther south, and keeps most of the rain farther south as well.  Time will tell.
















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

















July 2017 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  65.3 degrees
Normal:  65.8 degrees
Departure:  -0.5 degrees below normal

Warmest high temperature:  86 F on the 5th
Warmest low temperature:  64 F on the 6th

Coldest high temperature:  57 F on the 13th
Coldest low temperature:  48 F on the 17th and previous date

10 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F.  1 below the average of 11 days
4 days with a high temperature <70 f="" p="">1 day with a high temperature <60 f="" p="">
5 days with a low temperature <50 f="" p="">5 days with a low temperature of 60 F or warmer

Total precipitation:  4.11"
Normal:  3.85"
Departure:  +0.26" above normal

Heaviest daily rainfall total:  1.34" on the 21st

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation:  10
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation:  8
Number of days with at least 0.50" of precipitation:  2
Number of days with at least 1.00" of precipitation:  2

Notes:

*8 Thunderstorm days

*July 2017 was the second below average temperature month so far this year, the other month was May which finished -1.1 degrees below normal  Note:  Have to go back to 2014 for the last time Duluth had more than 2 below average temperatures months in the same year -- 5 months in 2014 were below average (January, February, March, April and November)

Comparing this July to last July at Duluth, Minnesota

July 2017 average temperature:  65.3 degrees (-0.5 degrees below normal)
July 2016 average temperature:  67.1 degrees (+1.3 degrees above normal)

An equal number of 80 degrees days this July compared to last July (10 days)
July 2016 had one 90 degree day; July 2017 had none

July 2017 rainfall total:  4.11" (+0.26" above normal)
July 2016 rainfall total:  4.39" (+0.54" above normal)

8 thunderstorm days in July 2017 and July 2016

July 2017 Climate Summaries for select cities

International Falls, Minnesota

Average temperature:  64.3 degrees
Departure:  -0.9 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.25"
Departure:  -1.45" below normal

**3 thunderstorm days**

Twin Cities, Minnesota

Average temperature:  75.3 degrees
Departure:  +1.5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.12"
Departure:  -0.92" below normal

**7 thunderstorm days**

St. Cloud, Minnesota

Average temperature:  70.2 degrees
Departure:  -0.1 degree below normal

Total precipitation:  2.38"
Departure:  -0.93" below normal

**6 thunderstorm days**

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Average temperature:  71.1 degrees
Departure:  -0.5 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  4.19"
Departure:  +0.31" above normal

**10 thunderstorm days**

Marquette, Michigan

Average temperature:  64.0 degrees
Departure:  -1.5 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  1.98"
Departure:  -0.86" below normal

**5 thunderstorm days**

Weather Synopsis

Northwest flow aloft covered the upper Midwest today.  There was a cold front well to the south/east of the Northland as of 5 PM today but a secondary boundary has been pushing south into northern Minnesota this afternoon.  A few showers and thunderstorms have been found near both fronts today, however, the stronger storms have been near the first cold front which was located from central Upper Michigan to southern Minnesota while weaker storms with mostly scattered rain showers were found near the second front up in northern Minnesota this afternoon.  Highs today were in the low to mid 80s in east central Minnesota, all of northwest Wisconsin and near Lake Superior with 70s in northern Minnesota.

A cooling trend is underway with the peak of it occurring on Thursday.  850mb temperatures which were in the +14 to +16C range this afternoon are forecast to drop to between +2 and +8C Thursday which is quite chilly for early August!

Spotty rain showers will continue moving south/southeast across portions of the Northland this evening with a brief heavier downpour possible in a few spots.  Otherwise for tonight expect partly cloudy skies with lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Most of Wednesday looks dry and it will be turning breezy and cooler especially near Lake Superior as an east wind increases during the day with gusts of 15 to 25 mph possible by the afternoon hours.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the 70s except near Lake Superior where highs will be in the 60s.

An area of low pressure will organize over the western High Plains region Wednesday -- This system will deepen as it moves through the upper Midwest and central/eastern Great Lakes on Thursday.  Looks like will get a widespread light to moderate rainfall in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late Wednesday night through most of Thursday with rain tapering off from west to east Thursday night the way it looks now.

Note:  Total rainfall amounts ranging from a quarter inch to one inch are possible in parts of the Northland late Wednesday night into Thursday with locally higher totals possible in southern parts of the area.

Gusty east to northeast winds near Lake Superior Wednesday night and Thursday with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible.

Highs Thursday only in the 50s with lower 60s possible in extreme southern parts of northwest Wisconsin (Phillips, Prentice areas)

The good news is that temperatures will rebound on Friday as highs get back into the upper 60s to mid 70s which will still be a little below average for early August but certainly milder than Thursday.

Note:  There is a chance for mainly afternoon-evening pop up showers for Friday, Saturday and Sunday as cold air aloft combines with some daytime heating to make the atmosphere unstable enough to generate these potential scattered showers over the weekend.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Isolated showers early.  Mostly cloudy early then partly cloudy.  Low 59 to 64.  Wind becoming north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy and cooler.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Breezy.  Rain possible late.  Mostly cloudy.  Lows in the 50s.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday...  Breezy.  Rain possible.  Highs in the 50s.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  76
Low:   56

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:50 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:38 PM CDT

Tim