Saturday, August 12, 2017

Dry tonight; Increasing clouds Sunday with showers possible in the afternoon-evening (Highs in the 70s) Back to back top 5 coldest lows on record at International Falls (Aug 11 and 12)

/Issued 7:12 PM CDT, Saturday, August 12, 2017/


18z Duluth WRF model


Water vapor satellite image; Surface analysis from 5:30 PM CDT, Saturday, August 12, 2017.


Radar loop centered on North Dakota through 7:20 PM CDT August 12, 2017.

Red boxes=Tornado warnings
Yellow boxes=Severe thunderstorm warnings

Note:  Although there is severe weather over the Dakotas this evening, this system as it moves into the Northland Sunday will have much less instability to work with, so no severe weather in our area Sunday, just some rain showers.

Weather Synopsis

There's been a few showers this afternoon in extreme northeast Minnesota, mainly over Cook County, otherwise it was a nice/dry summer day in the Northland with highs ranging from the middle 70s to around 80 degrees under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

The wet summer of 2017 continues -- Seems like we just can't get more than 2-3 days in a row without any rain this summer.  Our next rain maker is currently over the Dakotas this afternoon, and this system which consists of an upper level and surface area of low pressure will move slowly east into the upper Midwest on Sunday.  As this system moves east it will bring some showers to parts of the Northland from Sunday morning through Monday morning.  Note:  At the moment it looks like western-southern sections of the area have the greatest chance to get some rain on Sunday with a lesser chance north of a line from Cook to Tofte on north.  Generally light to perhaps moderate rain showers with this system , no real threat for thunder as instability will be very weak.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.  More clouds Sunday compared to Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s...Warmest temperatures likely over northern Minnesota, coolest around the Brainerd Lakes area.

Showers could linger in parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday, and then will wait for our next system which looks to affect us from Tuesday evening through Wednesday night...More rain with that one, and maybe a few thunderstorms as well, but the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms is very low for here in the Northland.

Note:  High temps from Monday through Friday (14th-18th) look pretty similar each day with temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s which is below to near normal for mid August -- Beyond the 18th there is a chance for a more sustained warm up for the upper Midwest with a couple days of 80+ degree high temperatures possible during the 20th-26th time frame, but will see if this holds up in coming days as the long range computer models have been too aggressive in bringing persistent warmth this far east throughout the summer.

A top 5 coldest low temperature on record on August 12, 2017 at International Falls, Minnesota.  See top 5 list below.

1:  36 degrees set in 1906
2:  39 degrees set in 1990 and 1916
3:  40 degrees set in 2014, 1951, 1950 and 1898
4:  41 degrees set in 1964
5:  42 degrees set in 2017

Note:  Another top 5 coldest low temperature on record occurred August 11, 2017 at International Falls, Minnesota.  See top 5 list below.

1:  34 degrees set in 1954
2:  36 degrees set in 1997
3:  38 degrees set in 1979, 1968 and 1950
4:  39 degrees set in 1982 and 1951
5:  41 degrees set in 2017, 2012 and 1967

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind southwest around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Increasing cloudiness.  Showers possible during the afternoon.  High 72 to 76.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Lows in the 50s.  Wind becoming east.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  75
Low:   55

Sunrise Sunday:  6:04 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:22 PM CDT