Friday, August 4, 2017

A few reports of small hail in parts of the Northland today. 2-3 waterspouts reported on Lake Winnibigoshish Thursday afternoon (~5PM)

/Issued 6:00 PM CDT, Friday, August 4, 2017/

Still seeing some showers and thunderstorms moving south/east through parts of northeast Minnesota late this afternoon.  Brief downpours, occasional lightning, gusty winds and possibly some small hail with this activity.  This stuff might weaken a bit as it heads into Duluth, but it might not, just never know for sure.






























Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/
















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

Radar loop from Friday afternoon (Ending just before 5 PM)  August 4, 2017.  Scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the Northland this afternoon with movement to the south/east.  Note:  One severe warned storm in northwest Wisconsin around 4 PM today (Blue polygon on map)

















Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model run


















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/
















Local Storm Reports for August 4, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*5:47 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Keewatin, MN 1 NW (Itasca County)

*5:40 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Kelly Lake, MN 1 S (St. Louis County)

*4:50 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Webster, WI 4 SSE (Burnett County)

*4:33 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Webb Lake, WI 6 WSW (Burnett County)

*4:23 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Seeley, WI 6 SSE (Sawyer County)

*4:15 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.88 inch.  Minong, WI (Washburn County)

*3:00 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Duluth, MN 3 N (St. Louis County)

*3:15 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Duluth, MN 3 N (St. Louis County)

Note:  At 5:15 PM CDT on August 3, 2017 water spouts were observed by the public on Lake Winnibigoshish, or 6 miles north-northwest of Bena, Minnesota in Cass County.  Potentially as many as three different waterspouts were observed with two of them occurring at the same time.  Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Weather Synopsis

We got rid of the widespread rain that affected most of the Northland on Thursday but we still had to deal with the pop up showers and thunderstorms which developed this afternoon thanks to the cold temperatures aloft and warmer temperatures near the surface, this combination made the atmosphere unstable, which helped to trigger the scattered convection that hit parts of the area this afternoon.  The main threats out of the storms today have been from torrential downpours, wind gusts to around 30 mph, small hail generally around pea size (0.25 inch diameter) and occasional cloud to ground lightning strikes.  Outside of the scattered storms, skies were partly to mostly sunny today with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Surface map late this afternoon had low pressure of 1004mb centered just north of Lake Huron while an upper level trough covered the Great Lakes.  High pressure was over the central Plains.

Note:  Rainfall amounts today ranged from over half an inch at International Falls (0.54") to around 0.15" to 0.20" at the Duluth Airport, Grand Rapids, Hill City, Orr and Grand Marais.  Rainfall totals in northwest Wisconsin ranged from 0.31" at Siren to 0.23" at Minong and 0.13" at Ashland.  Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger over parts of the Northland this evening as this activity tracks toward the south or southeast -- As we get rid of the daytime heating, most if not all of the showers will dissipate.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight with patchy late night fog possible.  Lows ranging from the mid 40s to upper 50s.

Saturday should be somewhat similar to today (Friday) as will have a mix of sun and clouds along with a chance for scattered mainly afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms.  About the only difference tomorrow compared to today is that most of the convection may be a little farther south than what we saw today, meaning far northern portions of Minnesota could stay dry most of the day, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that happening.  Highs Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 60s to middle 70s.  Note:  A few of the thunderstorms Saturday afternoon will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours, occasional cloud to ground lightning and possibly some small hail.

Sunday still has a chance of a few isolated showers with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Warms up just a bit on Monday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.  Monday also looks dry at the moment.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Isolated showers or thunderstorms this evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 51 to 56.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible during the afternoon-evening.  High 70 to 75.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated afternoon showers possible.  High 68 to 73.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  76
Low:   56

Sunrise Saturday:  5:54 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:34 PM CDT

Tim