Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Over an inch of rain with the early morning storms in Duluth. Very warm and muggy this afternoon, high temps 80s to ~90..Dew points 65-70

/Issued 12:12 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 5, 2017/

Late morning severe weather outlook per Storm Prediction Center -- Slight and Marginal risks of severe thunderstorms in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through tonight with the slight risk area covering the southern portions of the Northland from the Brainerd Lakes to just south of Duluth and into far northwest Wisconsin.  A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms includes all of northern Minnesota, the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior and the Hayward Lakes area.


Rainfall reports from late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, July 4-5, 2017

Brimson, MN 1 SE:  1.45 in
Alger, MN 3 ENE:  1.41 in
Crane Lake, MN 3 W:  1.17 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  1.12 in
International Falls, MN:  1.05 in
Embarrass, MN:  1.03 in
Patzau, WI 6 ENE:  1.00 in
Kabetogama, MN 1 W:  0.99 in
Ely, MN 5 S:  0.98 in
Babbitt, MN:  0.85 in
Maple, WI 1 WSW:  0.85 in
Cook, MN:  0.73 in
Gary New Duluth, MN:  0.66 in
Lester Park MN, 2 SW:  0.59 in
Washburn, WI:  0.58 in
Minong, WI 7 WNW:  0.54 in
Ashland, WI:  0.49 in
South Range, WI 3 ENE:  0.49 in
Lutsen, MN:  0.40 in
Wrenshall, MN 2 E:  0.34 in
Bayfield, WI:  0.33 in
Isabella, MN 1 W:  0.31 in
Hovland, MN:  0.25 in
Esko, MN 1 ESE:  0.16 in
Brule, WI 11 SSE:  0.11 in

Weather Synopsis

A lull in thunderstorm activity should persist most of the afternoon in the Northland as the storms from earlier this morning worked over the atmosphere just a bit but strong heating is well underway and the atmosphere is already responding as instability increases from west to east this afternoon.  There is no shortage of potential energy for storms through this evening with CAPE of 1500-3500 j/kg with pockets of even higher CAPE ~5000 j/kg possible in east central Minnesota.  Mid level winds will range from around 25-30 knots.  Dew points from 65-75 degrees while temperatures continue to warm well into the 80s with even a few lower 90s possible by mid to late afternoon in parts of the Northland.

The problem with getting storms to develop later today is the lack of a good trigger, and the available CAMS (Convection Allowing Models) show little to no thunderstorm activity in most of our area through this evening.  There is a weak boundary though across the upper Midwest this morning, and this front won't be moving much through tonight.  There is also a weak disturbance or two approaching from the northwest -- The combination of these two things could be just enough to get storms to pop later this afternoon or this evening over portions of the Northland.  If storms are able to develop, they certainly could be strong to severe with so much warm, humid and unstable air over the area.