Saturday, July 8, 2017

Isolated showers before midnight; Scattered showers possible in parts of the Northland for Sunday; Dry Monday. >18" of precip so far this year at Duluth, MN (~4" above normal to date)

/Issued 8:02 PM CDT, Saturday, July 8, 2017/


20z HRRRX model valid at 9 AM Sunday.

Note:  Temperatures are also tricky Sunday, could be as cool as 65 to 70 degrees in Duluth or could be as warm as 80 degrees -- Depends on sky conditions and where these rain showers set up.


Well below average temperatures expected next week over eastern Canada as a piece of the Polar Vortex breaks loose as it moves from Hudson Bay to Quebec Province early-mid portion of next week -- This won't be affecting the Northland though as it stays far enough to the northeast and away from our local area.


Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*19 thunderstorm days so far this year -- The average for an entire year is ~35 thunderstorm days.  Note:  By this time last year, 14 thunderstorm days.

*7.09 inches of rain since June 1st (+1.70 inches above normal to date)

*18.23 inches of precipitation since January 1st (+3.92 inches above normal) ~2.80 inches wetter this year compared to last year through July 8th.

Note:  The takeaway from those rain stats is that we're doing just fine in the rainfall department this summer and for the year so far, could actually use a few weeks of little to no rain but that's difficult to do at this time of year, especially considering the weather pattern that we have been in most of the summer thus far.

Weather Synopsis

A real nice summer day with highs today in the mid 70s to low 80s.  There was a mix of sun and clouds over the Northland today with a few showers passing through far northern Minnesota this afternoon thanks to a cold front which has been moving slowly toward the south out of southern Ontario Province.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are on tap for tonight with isolated showers this evening followed by the potential for more showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight mostly affecting western portions of the Northland -- Not as cool as last night with lows tonight in the low 50s to low 60s.

A cold front will pass through the Northland from north to south tonight, this front will likely become stationary across central Minnesota Sunday before it gets shoved farther south late Sunday night thanks to an area of low pressure which will track southeast out of the northern Plains -- Scattered showers are likely in our area Sunday with a few thunderstorms possible as well although the amount of instability looks fairly limited with this setup with CAPE of a couple hundred j/kg possible, while much stronger instability and better moisture pooling takes place over the south half of Minnesota Sunday, and this is where some stronger convection could develop later Sunday afternoon or evening along with a threat of heavy rain.  Highs Sunday should remain in the 60s and 70s although a few locations especially up north could approach 80 degrees.

Monday looks mainly dry with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

The next chance for showers or thunderstorms comes Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as an area of low pressure, warm front and cold front move across the upper Midwest.  Looks like a greater amount of instability and more moisture with this next setup so there could be some strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of the Northland late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  An isolated shower is possible before midnight.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers possible.  High 70 to 75.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  76
Low:   55

Sunrise Sunday:  5:24 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   9:03 PM CDT