Sunday, July 16, 2017

Cool tonight with some haze/smoke; More humid Monday (Dew points 60s to ~70) Highs approaching 100F in western Minnesota!

/Issued 5:13 PM CDT, Sunday, July 16, 2017/


18z HRRRX model temperature forecast valid at 3 PM Monday.  A very warm Monday ahead in most of Minnesota, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior, although it should be a bit warmer compared to today (Sunday)


7.16.2017 12z NSSL WRF-ARW model

The two images below show two difference scenarios for where thunderstorms develop late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening.


7.16.2017 18z HRRRX



First half of July 2017 U.S. temperature anomalies


July 1-15, 2017 temperature departure map


July 1-15, 2017 precipitation departure map


Temperature departure map for the week of July 9, 2017


Precipitation departure map for the week of July 9, 2017

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 9-15, 2017

High temperatures

7/9:  74 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/10:  81 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/11:  76 F/Normal
7/12:  61 F/-15 degrees below normal
7/13:  57 F/-20 degrees below normal
7/14:  76 F/-1 degree below normal
7/15:  82 F/+5 degrees above normal

Low temperatures

7/9:  55 F/Normal
7/10:  56 F/+1 degree above normal
7/11:  53 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/12:  50 F/-5 degrees below normal
7/13:  50 F/-6 degrees below normal
7/14:  49 F/-7 degrees below normal
7/15:  60 F/+4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.32"
Normal:  0.88"
Departure:  -0.56" below normal

Weather Synopsis

Sunny to mostly sunny skies across the Northland today but there was an area of smoke which has been pushing S/SE through parts of the area resulting in a hazy appearance to the sky today.  Highs ranged from the 60s near Lake Superior due to a gusty lake wind while highs farther inland were in the 70s.  Less humid today compared to Saturday with dew points this afternoon generally in the 40s and 50s.

A quiet and cool night ahead as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s but can't completely rule out a few 30s away from Lake Superior over interior portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Changes take place Monday as humidity ramps up while instability also increases as southerly winds develop out ahead of an area of low pressure which will be over the northern Plains -- A warm front and cold front attached to this low will make their way into the Northland on Monday.  Dew points are forecast to climb to between 60 and 70 degrees in our area by Monday afternoon with PWATS building to 1.25"-1.75".  CAPE will range from 1000-2500 j/kg with around 30 knots of Effective Bulk Shear and 0-6 km shear.  Mid level winds are forecast to range from 30-45 knots with a corridor of strong winds aloft 80-100 knots off to our west/northwest.  The overall setup for Monday is favorable for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin -- The greatest potential for this to occur over north central and east central portions of Minnesota.  Note:  The main hazards besides lightning and heavy rainfall will be from hail or gusty winds Monday and Monday night.  Highs on Monday are expected to be in the 80s with a chance for a 90 degree temperature near the Brainerd Lakes.  It will remain cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Note:  A top 5 coldest low temperature on record is possible in Duluth early Monday morning, July 17.  Records date back to 1870.  See stats below.

1:  40 degrees in 1971
2:  45 degrees in 1979 and 1951
3:  46 degrees in 1914
4:  47 degrees in 1924
5:  48 degrees in 1956, 1937, 1920, 1918 and 1911

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly clear but some haze or fog possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Turning more humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Some fog possible early.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon.  High 77 to 82 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph inland, and east to southeast near Lake Superior.

.Monday night...  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Lows in the 60s.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Monday:  5:32 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:57 PM CDT