Thursday, June 1, 2017

Turning much cooler near Lake Superior Fri PM-Sat AM then warming up again near the lake Sat PM. Turning more humid Fri-Sat with a risk of showers/t-storms Fri night-Sat

/Issued 7:46 PM CDT, Thursday, June 1, 2017/


18z model run



Low temperature reports from this morning, June 1, 2017

Brimson, MN:  29 F
Hibbing, MN:  30 F
Celina, MN 2 E:  30 F
Embarrass, MN:  30 F
Solon Springs, WI:  32 F
Cotton, MN:  32 F
Hayward, WI:  33 F
International Falls, MN:  34 F
Bigfork, MN:  34 F
Moose Lake, MN:  34 F
Phillips, WI:  34 F
Floodwood, MN:  34 F
Winter, WI:  35 F
Ashland, WI:  36 F
Orr, MN:  36 F
Cook, MN:  36 F
Brainerd, MN:  37 F
Ely, MN:  37 F

Weather Synopsis

A beautiful first day of June and Meteorological summer across the Northland under sunny to partly cloudy skies.  Highs were in the 70s to lower 80s with comfortable humidity levels as dew points were generally in the 30s this afternoon.

Another quiet weather night ahead under clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s but 30s are possible again in the typical cold spots.

Friday looks warm but a lake wind is forecast to develop while increasing later in the day so temperatures will be turning a lot cooler near Lake Superior especially later Friday afternoon into Friday night.  It should remain dry in our area through Friday evening, thereafter scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop later Friday night as a warm front approaches from the southwest.  Computer models are projecting a decent amount of instability Friday night with elevated CAPE ranging from 1000-2000 j/kg which is plenty of fuel for thunderstorm development.

High temperatures Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with dew points climbing into the 50s.  Temperatures near Lake Superior could start out in the 60s or 70s but should fall into the 40s and 50s by late Friday afternoon or Friday evening as the lake wind increases.

This weekend shouldn't be a complete washout but there are chances for showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday, but this activity should be scattered meaning not everyone will get wet.  Heavy downpours are certainly possible though underneath a thunderstorm so keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans.

The best chance for rain Saturday looks to be in the morning and then from mid afternoon-early evening while Sunday could feature scattered showers throughout the day with dry periods in between the showers.

At the moment I think the greatest chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be Saturday afternoon but this will be dependent on the timing of the cold front and if clearing can take place for a few hours Saturday afternoon to help increase the instability.  Winds aloft look a little more favorable for a few beefier thunderstorms Saturday compared to Friday night as mid level winds increase to 30-40 knots while a 60-70 knot upper level jet approaches from the northern Plains.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny.  High 74 to 79 but turning much cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming east at 10 to 20 mph during the afternoon.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  67
Low:   45

Sunrise Friday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:56 PM CDT