Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Fog near Lake Superior tonight (Could be dense!) Warmer SW winds develop Thu-Fri, spotty PM storms both days. Northland storm and rainfall reports in this post

/Issued 5:12 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 14, 2017/




The forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center do an outstanding job on a daily basis.  I thought it be kinda interesting to look back at their severe weather forecasts over the past few days, and to see how well their forecasts verified.

This first image was the severe weather outlook for Tuesday, June 13, 2017.  All of the colored dots represent severe weather reports from yesterday.  Looks like this forecast verified nicely.

Another example in this next image which was from Monday, June 12, 2017.  A moderate risk day in parts of the western High Plains, match up the storm reports from where the SPC placed the Moderate risk area and it looks like the forecast verified once again.

Local Storm Reports for June 13-14, 2017

*1:50 AM CDT 6/14:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  58 mph.  Minong Flowage 3 WSW (Washburn County)

*11:24 PM CDT 6/13:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Fifty Lakes, MN (Crow Wing County)  Tree downed, took down a powerline.

*11:11 PM CDT 6/13:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Crosslake, MN (Crow Wing County)

*11:10 PM CDT 6/13:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)

*9:55 PM CDT 6/13:  HAIL.  1.50 inch.  Round Lake, MN 2 NW (Itasca County)

*8:49 PM CDT 6/13:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Grand Rapids, MN 6 NE (Itasca County)

*5:13 PM CDT 6/13:  HAIL.  0.50 inch. Cohasset, MN (Itasca County)  Largest hail was dime sized.

*Record Event*

Record 24-hour rainfall total at International Falls, Minnesota on Tuesday, June 13, 2017.

New record:  1.26 inches
Previous record:  1.20 inches set in 1983

Past 24-hour rainfall reports ending this morning (June 14, 2017)

Ely, MN 7 NW:  3.61 in
Littlefork, MN 13 SSE:  2.50 in
Breezy Point, MN:  2.40 in
Cook, MN:  2.20 in
Fort Ripley, MN 3 NE:  2.16 in
Hill City, MN 1 S:  1.97 in
Winton, MN:  1.81 in
Togo, MN:  1.80 in
Brainerd, MN:  1.76 in
Wright, MN 3 E:  1.65 in
Aurora, MN:  1.63 in
Isabella, MN 1 W:  1.53 in
International Falls, MN:  1.49 in
Crane Lake, MN 3 W:  1.46 in
Babbitt, MN:  1.42 in
McGregor, MN 7 N:  1.41 in
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  1.40 in
Embarrass, MN:  1.38 in
Yellowlake, WI:  1.35 in
Grand Portage, MN 4 W:  1.33 in
Walker, MN:  1.30 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  1.21 in
Hayward, WI:  1.19 in
Hertel, WI 6 NE:  1.13 in
Floodwood, MN:  1.08 in
Drummond, WI 11 W:  1.08 in
Northome, MN:  1.03 in
Lutsen, MN:  1.01 in
Brule, WI 11 SSE:  1.00 in
Cotton, MN 3 SE:  0.95 in
Lester Park, MN:  0.95 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.92 in
Cloquet, MN 1 SE:  0.88 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.80 in
Hovland, MN:  0.73 in
Gordon, WI:  0.70 in
Glidden, WI:  0.51 in
Danbury, WI:  0.51 in
Siren, WI:  0.47 in
Hurley, WI:  0.31 in
Ashland, WI:  0.30 in
Silver Bay, MN:  0.20 in

Weather Synopsis

Most of today has been dry in our area after the early morning showers and thunderstorms which swept through the Northland.  Late this afternoon we're still dealing with two fronts, a warm front and cold front which are sitting over the area.  The atmosphere isn't quite as unstable as it has been in recent days with meso-analysis from 3 PM showing CAPE of 500-1500 j/kg while mid level lapse rates were in the 6.0-6.5 c/km range.  Most of the energy associated with the severe weather outbreaks over the past two days has lifted into Manitoba Province today but there was a fairly strong disturbance which has been moving east/northeast into the central/southern Great Lakes, and this is where most of the intense thunderstorms have been today affecting central, eastern and southern Wisconsin into parts of Illinois.  Highs today were in the 70s to lower 80s but it was much cooler again near Lake Superior due to a stronger lake breeze, similar to Tuesday.

The focus for this evening will be on thunderstorm chances -- Overall I'm not expecting many storms to develop this evening, but will likely see a few spotty thunderstorms pop up in parts of the area with a low risk for hail or gusty winds in one or two storms away from Lake Superior.  Should be dry overnight as the warm front and cold front finally exit the Northland to the north/east.  Note:  Fog will likely be an issue most of the night near Lake Superior with visibility possibly dropping below a mile at times.  Lows tonight in the 50s to lower 60s.

Warmer southwest winds return to lakeside locations for Thursday with highs over the entire Northland in the 70s to lower 80s, and you can pretty much rubber stamp Thursday's high temperature forecast and use them for Friday.

Expecting a mix of sun/clouds Thursday and Friday and there is also a chance for a few afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms over the Northland due to an area of low pressure which will move from Manitoba to Ontario Province through Friday.  Any disturbance rotating around that low will move over a somewhat unstable atmosphere, and this combined with colder temperatures aloft and warmer temps near the surface could help to kick off a few storms but they should be spotty in coverage.  Gusty winds can't be ruled out if a stronger storm develops due to the stronger winds aloft, and there could also be some small hail with the slightly steep mid level lapse rates that are forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon.

Note:  The potential for showers and a few thunderstorms continues over the weekend with the greatest chance for some rain looking to occur sometime Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning.  The mildest day looks to be on Saturday with highs generally in the 70s, maybe a few 80s if the rain stays away long enough.  Cooler on Sunday with highs mainly in the 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Fog.  A shower is possible this evening.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming south to southwest toward daybreak.

.Thursday...  Fog possible early.  Breezy and warmer! Partly to mostly sunny.  Spotty late afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 75 to 80.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible.  High 75 to 80.  Wind southwest.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  71
Low:   49

Sunrise Thursday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:04 PM CDT