Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Cool but dry tonight; Sun/cloud mix with passing showers Wednesday; Highs well into the 70s Thursday

/Issued 5:49 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 20, 2017/

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM Nest model.  This model shows some showers affecting parts of central/eastern Minnesota and west central/north central Wisconsin Wednesday morning/early afternoon, and then this model develops some convection late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours as scattered thunderstorms erupt over north central/east central portions of Minnesota with movement toward the east.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

12z NSSL WRF-ARW model

This model shows most of the showers on Wednesday staying across northern sections of Minnesota with scattered strong thunderstorms developing later in the afternoon over eastern North Dakota/western Minnesota with movement of those storms toward the south and east.  Note:  This model run goes through 7 PM Wednesday.

Update:  Thanks to a late afternoon rise in temperatures yesterday, International Falls, Minnesota had their 6th coldest high temperature on record on June 19th, not the second coldest.  The high temp yesterday, June 19, 2017 was 63 F which tied with 2011 for 6th coldest high temperature on record on the 19th of June.

Weather Synopsis

Another day featuring a mix of sun/clouds.  Early morning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as a strong disturbance tracked SE through the upper Midwest, the rest of today has been mainly dry although a few spotty showers did develop this afternoon in far northeast Minnesota.  Highs today below average in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees, not record setting cold but still a good 5-10 degrees below normal for late June.

A cool but dry night ahead as high pressure moves overhead -- Expect partly to at times mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s, maybe a few 30s in the traditional cold spots up north if skies can clear enough.

High pressure shifts off to the east Wednesday which allows a southerly flow to develop as low pressure approaches from the west -- A warm front and cold front connected to that low will move through the Northland Wednesday night.  Warm air advection will probably generate scattered showers tomorrow under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Computer models show an increase in elevated instability Wednesday night, and this combined with slightly more lift provided by the approaching fronts should lead to some showers and thunderstorms in our area -- A few of the storms could be on the strong side Wednesday evening mainly over western portions of the Northland (Along and west of a line from International Falls to Lake Mille Lacs line) Gusty winds and hail are the main threats if stronger storms develop.

Highs Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Wednesday night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Low pressure will be centered to to our north Thursday with a trough pushing southeast across the area later in the day, this feature could help to pop a few showers or thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon or Thursday night.  Highs Thursday will be in the 70s.

Unfortunately the period from Friday through Sunday looks to be dominated by another upper level low pressure system which will set up near Hudson Bay Canada -- This will lead to clouds and the potential for afternoon/evening spotty showers across the Northland Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  NW flow aloft will also occur which means below average temperatures this weekend.  Daytime highs will likely be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with lows mainly in the 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming variable.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  High 67 to 72.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  Low 56 to 61.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  72
Low:   51

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:06 PM CDT