Thursday, June 15, 2017

A few showers/t-storms before midnight and again Friday PM (Highs Friday 70s to ~80)

/Issued 7:35 PM CDT, Thursday, June 15, 2017/



Visible satellite loop starting late this morning, ending at 2:15 PM this afternoon.  Quite a few interesting features on this satellite loop; One is the erosion of fog over Lake Superior; Second, severe thunderstorm development over the Keweenaw Peninsula in northern upper Michigan; Third, the fairly extensive cumulus (CU) deck across northern Minnesota into far northern Wisconsin.

Source:  www.spc.noaa.go

May 2017 severe weather reports map for the U.S. (See image below)

Red dots=Tornado reports
Green dots=Hail reports (1.00 inch or larger in diameter)
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)

May 2017 severe stats for Minnesota

Tornadoes:  3 (1989-2013 Average for May is 6 tornadoes)
Hail:  31
Wind:  21

Total:  55 severe weather reports

May 2017 severe weather stats for Wisconsin

Tornadoes:  7 (1989-2013 Average for May is 3 tornadoes)
Hail:  28
Wind:  90

Total:  125 severe weather reports

Annual 2017 severe weather stats thru June 13


Tornadoes:  7
Hail:  90
Wind:  102

Total:  199 severe weather reports so far this year.


Tornadoes:  10
Hail:  77
Wind:  218

Total:  305 severe weather reports so far this year.

Note:  Average annual number of tornadoes in Minnesota is 36, and in Wisconsin 22 (1985-2014)

Weather Synopsis

Low pressure at the surface and aloft was over eastern Manitoba Province this afternoon -- Cyclonic flow around this system resulted in partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies over most of the Northland this afternoon with a few showers and thunderstorms affecting far northern/western areas.  Highs today were in the 70s with a few locations near Lake Superior and in far southern portions of the Northland close to 80 degrees.

Spotty showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east affecting parts of the Northland this evening with mostly dry conditions anticipated during the overnight hours.  Lows will mainly be in the 50s.

Friday's weather looks fairly similar to today -- Reason behind this is that low pressure will remain to our north resulting in cyclonic flow over our area, any disturbance rotating around that low will move into a somewhat unstable airmass triggering a few showers and thunderstorms.  There could be an isolated stronger storm later in the afternoon but most of the storms shouldn't become too strong but any storm will be capable of produce lightning and brief heavy downpours.  Highs Friday are expected to be in the 70s to lower 80s.

More chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms late Friday night through Saturday night as a more vigorous low pressure system develops over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.  Highs Saturday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.

Cooler temperatures for Sunday as the Northland will be on the backside of a strong area of low pressure with cold air advecting into our area as 850mb temperatures drop to +5 to +8C.  Daytime highs Sunday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s.  Showers are also possible Sunday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Isolated showers or thunderstorms mainly before midnight.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon.  High 75 to 80.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday night...  Scattered showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Lows in the 50s.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Highs in the 60s.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  71
Low:   50

Sunrise Friday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:05 PM CDT