Wednesday, June 21, 2017

30s in parts of northern MN early this morning (5th coldest low temp on record at International Falls, MN this morning, June 21) Risk for scattered showers/t-storms tonight

/Issued 6:13 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 21, 2017/


Tonight's thunderstorm outlook


18z 3km NAM

Low temperature reports from this morning, June 21, 2017

Brimson, MN:  34 F
Embarrass, MN:  34 F
Celina, MN 2 E:  37 F
Crane Lake, MN:  37 F
International Falls, MN:  38 F
Hibbing, MN:  38 F
Babbitt, MN:  38 F
Orr, MN 3 E:  38 F
Cook, MN:  39 F

Note:  Low temperature of 38 degrees this morning (June 21, 2017) at International Falls, Minnesota is the 5th coldest low temperature on record on the 21st of June -- The record low temperature for today's date (6/21) is 33 degrees set in 1992.

Weather Synopsis

A chilly start to the day with early morning lows in the 40s with 30s up north while near Lake Superior temperatures were milder (50s)

Temperatures warmed up nicely this afternoon with readings in the 70s with a few locations near 80 degrees at 5 PM (Brainerd, MN and Siren, WI)  Cooler 60s were found near Lake Superior thanks to a lake breeze today, and also across parts of northern Minnesota where some showers have been occurring this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies.  Elsewhere in the Northland it was dry today under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

A strong area of low pressure over eastern Saskatchewan Province this afternoon will move across central Manitoba Province Thursday, then will see this low move into eastern Canada by Friday.  A warm front and cold front attached to this low will move through the Northland tonight and early Thursday morning.  The amount of low level moisture ahead of this system isn't overly impressive as dew points this afternoon were generally in the mid 50s to low 60s with PWATS of 1.10"-1.30" -- This deeper moisture will advect into the Northland this evening as a S-SW low level jet strengthens to 30-40 knots.  Instability is also forecast to increase this evening as elevated CAPE climbs to between 500-1500 j/kg with the higher values expected to remain over western-southern portions of the Northland.  Will likely see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across parts of the area tonight with the greatest potential for strong to severe thunderstorms remaining along and west of a line from near International Falls to Mille Lacs Lake.  Note:  The amount of wind shear is quite impressive with tonight's setup with meso-analysis at 5 PM showing 50-60 knots of 0-6 km shear over our area while strong mid and upper level winds push east out of the northern Plains (50-70 knots at 500mb, and >80 knots in the upper levels)  The limiting factor for a more widespread severe weather event tonight is the lack of real deep moisture.

Lows tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday will find tonight's frontal boundaries pushing off to the south/east while a wave of low pressure rides along the southward advancing cold front (moving from western Nebraska toward far northeast Iowa to northern Lake Huron between Thursday morning and Friday morning -- There is a chance that a complex of showers and thunderstorms develops over the south half of Minnesota Thursday morning and the northern edge of this complex could affect southern areas of the Northland where some showers could occur Thursday morning.  Northern Minnesota is forecast to have more sun tomorrow compared to southern areas.  Highs will range from the 70s to near 80 degrees up north with 60s and 70s farther south due to the expected cloud cover.

A secondary trough is expected to sweep down into the Northland Thursday night and a few showers or thunderstorms could develop as that boundary arrives late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

We're looking at a cool weekend with clouds, some sun along with a chance for scattered mainly afternoon/evening showers/isolated thunderstorms as a new upper level low/trough sets up to our north with NW flow and cold air aloft occurring across the Northland.  Daytime highs are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s Friday, Saturday and Sunday which will be around 10-20 degrees below average for this time of year.

Note:  There is a chance that International Falls, Minnesota could have a top 3 coldest HIGH temperature on record on June 23, 24, and 25 (Friday through Sunday)  See stats below.

June 23:

Coldest:  57 degrees (1996)
2nd coldest:  58 degrees (1917)
3rd coldest:  59 degrees (2004)

June 24:

Coldest:  58 degrees (1916)
2nd coldest:  59 degrees (1958)
3rd coldest:  60 degrees (1948)

June 25:

Coldest:  58 degrees (1898)
2nd coldest:  59 degrees in 2004 and 1985
3rd coldest:  61 degrees in 1992 and 1970

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 54 to 59.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest overnight.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy but some sunshine possible at times.  High 70 to 75.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  73
Low:   51

Sunrise Thursday:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:06 PM CDT