Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Scattered showers, few t-storms Wednesday afternoon/evening with highs in the 60s

/Issued 4:00 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 2, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

Note:  I included two convective allowing models (CAMS) both of which show the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon.

18z NAM 3km

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

12z NSSL WRF-ARW model

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Lots and lots of flooding lately in parts of Missouri and Illinois and surrounding areas -- Check out these rainfall totals last month, incredible!  Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Weather Synopsis:

Lingering effects of the large spring storm that hit the Northland on Monday continued today with extensive mid to high level cloud cover along with some scattered cumulus clouds but there were some breaks in the these clouds which allowed for at least some sunshine from time to time.  Temperatures did warm up though compared to Monday with highs today in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees which is close to average for the 2nd of May.

A quiet night ahead under partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows generally in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Wednesday morning should be dry but by the afternoon and evening hours there will be a chance for scattered showers in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin...These showers will be associated with a low pressure trough which will pass through the Northland.  Cold temperatures aloft (500mb temps around -25C) along with steep mid level lapse rates of around 7.0 c/km will move over the area tomorrow with CAPE of up to 500 j/kg and Lifted Indices around 0 to -2C -- This should be enough fuel to trigger a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Although severe weather is not expected in our area, a few of the storms could become strong enough to spit out some small hail due to the cold temps aloft.  Gusty winds, brief downpours and some lightning will also occur where these storms hit.  Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the 60s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 36 to 41.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest late.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers possible mainly later in the day.  A thunderstorm also possible.  High 60 to 65.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  58
Low:   37

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:50 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:22 PM CDT