Friday, May 19, 2017

East wind 20-30+ mph in Duluth Saturday with rain developing during the afternoon; More showers Sunday

/Issued 5:30 PM CDT, Friday, May 19, 2017/


18z NAM 3km model.

Note:  Total rainfall with this system looks to be in the quarter to half inch range in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but locally higher amounts to around an inch are possible in a few locations.


A marginal risk of flash flooding for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (Green area on map)


A chilly weekend ahead in the Twin Ports but probably not cold enough to make it into the top 3 coldest high temperatures on record list.

Listed below are the top 3 coldest high temperatures on record for May 20th and 21st at Duluth, Minnesota.

May 20:

1:  39 degrees (1927)
2:  40 degrees (1890)
3:  41 degrees (2007)

May 21:

1:  37 degrees (1926)
2:  41 degrees (1891)
3:  42 degrees (1913)

Low temperature reports for May 19, 2017

Embarrass, MN:  24 F
Orr, MN 3 E:  25 F
International Falls, MN:  25 F
Hibbing, MN:  25 F
Crane Lake, MN:  25 F
Ely, MN:  27 F
Orr, MN:  27 F
Cook, MN:  27 F
Bigfork, MN:  27 F
Babbitt, MN:  27 F
Cotton, MN:  27 F
Ely, MN 25 E:  28 F
Silver Bay, MN:  28 F
Grand Marais, MN:  28 F
Saxon, WI 1 WSW:  28 F
Hurley, WI:  29 F
Clam Lake, WI 4 W:  30 F
Cloquet, MN:  30 F
Butternut, WI:  31 F
Phillips, WI:  31 F
Northome, MN:  31 F
Walker, MN:  32 F
Solon Springs, WI:  32 F
Hayward, WI:  32 F
Grand Marais, MN:  32 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  32 F
Aitkin, MN:  32 F
Wright, MN 3 E:  32 F

Note:  4-day rainfall total of 2.30 inches at Duluth, Minnesota (May 15-18)  Normal precipitation total during that time period is just 0.42 inches.  Rainfall surplus of +1.88 inches from May 15-18.

Note:  This will be one of those wonderful spring weekends in Duluth (Well maybe not)  Cold lake winds Saturday with rain developing during the afternoon.  More rain at times Saturday night and Sunday.

*Flood Warning update at this link*

Weather Synopsis:

High temperatures in far northern Minnesota were close to normal today with highs in the lower 60s but the rest of the Northland had below average highs in the 50s with mid to upper 40s near Lake Superior.  Quite a bit of mid to high level cloudiness pushing north across the area today but no rain today so that's a plus!

Mainly dry across the Northland tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

Overcast Saturday with rain spreading south to north across the Northland.  Rain will begin first south of the Twin Ports Saturday morning or early afternoon, rain should reach the Twin Ports Saturday afternoon, and spread farther north by late Saturday afternoon or early evening.  Highs Saturday in the 40s and 50s, warmest temperatures away from Lake Superior and for areas that stay dry the longest.

Lingering rain Sunday although coverage should be more scattered compared to Saturday.  Sunday's highs only in the 40s.

Note:  The storm responsible for the rain this weekend will track from southern Kansas this evening to the Iowa-Minnesota state line Saturday evening to the northern shores of Lake Superior by Sunday evening.  Cold air will get drawn into this system as it lifts north into the upper Midwest this weekend, in fact it could be just cold enough for a rain/snow mix Saturday night-early Sunday morning over portions of west central and northwest Minnesota.

Looking ahead to next week - No signs of any big warm-ups around here, in fact it looks like the rest of the this month will more or less feature below normal temperatures, although a brief spike in temps could result in near normal values on occasion but again the overall trend is cooler than normal temperatures right through the end of the month.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Rain developing during the afternoon.  High 43 to 48.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Sunday...  Occasional rain showers.  Overcast.  High around 45.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  64
Low:   42

Sunrise Saturday:  5:28 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:43 PM CDT