Monday, March 6, 2017

From thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather this evening to a burst of snow early Tuesday morning! Wind Advisory in effect Tuesday (Gusts to 45 mph)

/Issued 4:51 PM CST, Monday, March 6, 2017/

Source:  21z HRRR model;

Visible satellite image and some weather highlights from late this afternoon.  Source:

Today's storm is very dynamic, lots of wind energy with it.  Upper level winds ~140 knots, mid level winds ~70 knots, low level jet ~50 knots.

Red box=Tornado Watch.  People in and near the watch area need to pay attention to the weather this evening.  Heed all warnings whether they are in the form of a severe thunderstorm warning or a tornado warning.  Source:

Tornado probabilities through the early to mid evening hours.  In addition to the threat for isolated tornadoes, there is a potential for hail along with strong gusty winds.

On a typical March 6th this is where severe weather is most likely to occur based on reports from 1982-2011.  Today's severe potential in Minnesota and Wisconsin is very far to the north compared to average for the 6th of March.

Here is the severe weather outlook through this evening.  Source:

Orange=Enhanced risk (3)
Yellow=Slight risk (2)
Dark green=Marginal risk (1)

A southwest storm force event expected Tuesday into Wednesday morning over the open waters of Lake Superior.  Per NWS Marquette, MI -- Winds 40-50 knots with wave heights to 18 feet, a maximum wave height to 26 feet is possible.

For Duluth and Superior:

-Wind Advisory is in effect from 6 AM Tuesday until 6 PM CST Tuesday.  Southwest wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

-Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms before midnight.  Temperatures around 50 degrees.

-A burst of snow is expected between 4 AM and 6 AM Tuesday.  Temperatures falling into the upper 20s by dawn with winds shifting southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

-Temperatures Tuesday afternoon in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.  Strong southwest winds 20 to 45 mph.  Snow showers return later in the day, but more likely Tuesday night.