/Issued 4:51 PM CST, Monday, March 6, 2017/
Source: 21z HRRR model; http://weather.cod.edu
Visible satellite image and some weather highlights from late this afternoon. Source: http://weather.cod.edu
Today's storm is very dynamic, lots of wind energy with it. Upper level winds ~140 knots, mid level winds ~70 knots, low level jet ~50 knots.
Red box=Tornado Watch. People in and near the watch area need to pay attention to the weather this evening. Heed all warnings whether they are in the form of a severe thunderstorm warning or a tornado warning. Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Tornado probabilities through the early to mid evening hours. In addition to the threat for isolated tornadoes, there is a potential for hail along with strong gusty winds.
On a typical March 6th this is where severe weather is most likely to occur based on reports from 1982-2011. Today's severe potential in Minnesota and Wisconsin is very far to the north compared to average for the 6th of March.
Here is the severe weather outlook through this evening. Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/
Orange=Enhanced risk (3)
Yellow=Slight risk (2)
Dark green=Marginal risk (1)
A southwest storm force event expected Tuesday into Wednesday morning over the open waters of Lake Superior. Per NWS Marquette, MI -- Winds 40-50 knots with wave heights to 18 feet, a maximum wave height to 26 feet is possible.
For Duluth and Superior:
-Wind Advisory is in effect from 6 AM Tuesday until 6 PM CST Tuesday. Southwest wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
-Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms before midnight. Temperatures around 50 degrees.
-A burst of snow is expected between 4 AM and 6 AM Tuesday. Temperatures falling into the upper 20s by dawn with winds shifting southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
-Temperatures Tuesday afternoon in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. Strong southwest winds 20 to 45 mph. Snow showers return later in the day, but more likely Tuesday night.