Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Possible rain showers changing to snow showers Wed night; Late week storm track shifting north a bit (Snow chances increasing in parts of the Northland late Thursday-Friday)

/Issued 5:04 PM CST, Tuesday, February 21, 2017/

Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model

The storm for late this week has been showing up on the computer models for many many days, but the storm track has been changing quite a bit over the past few days (that is pretty typical though) There was a noticeable southward shift in the storm track 24 hours ago which would've resulted in little or no snow in the Northland, but today the storm track has been shifting back to the north, in fact a few of the models have really shifted this thing to the north (GFS, GEFS and NAM) if that holds up, then east central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and the Twin Ports vicinity would likely pick up a significant amount of snow from Thursday night into Friday.  Stay tuned!

Source:  http://www.weather.gov/crh/

Blue area=Winter Storm Watch for Thursday and Friday.  Some expansion in the watch to the north is possible by Thursday.

Friday's storm will have snow (possible blizzard conditions) on one side of the low, while on the other side of the low a risk for severe thunderstorms (Yellow shaded area on map)  Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Rainfall map from February 20, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Record Events for February 20, 2017

*Record warm low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.  New record:  37 degrees.  Old record:  33 degrees set in 1954.  Note:  This is the 7th time so far this year with either a record warm low temperature, or a record warm low temperature that was tied.

*Record warm low temperature at International Falls, Minnesota.  New record:  35 degrees.  Old record:  32 degrees set in 1915.  Note:  The high temperature of 46 degrees on Monday made it the second warmest February 20th on record.  The warmest on record is 48 degrees set in 1990.

Final rainfall reports from February 20, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Hovland, MN:  1.17"
Grand Marais, MN 4 W:  1.13"
Grand Portage, MN 4 W:  1.08"
Lutsen, MN:  1.07"
Aurora, MN:  1.00"
Two Harbors, MN 3 W:  0.94"
Winter, WI 4 NW:  0.91"
Cotton, MN 3 SE:  0.90"
Sarona, WI:  0.90"
Lester Park MN 2 SW:  0.89"
Hayward, WI:  0.88"
Clam Lake, WI 3 W:  0.86"
Park Falls, WI 1 N:  0.86"
Butternut, WI 3 N:  0.85"
Littlefork, MN:  0.83"
Esko, MN 1 ESE:  0.82"
Taft, MN:  0.80"
Duluth, MN 2 NE:  0.79"
Floodwood, MN:  0.79"
Phillips, WI:  0.78"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.77"
Chisholm, MN:  0.77"
Minong, WI 7 WNW:  0.75"
Glidden, WI:  0.74"
Scanlon, MN:  0.73"
South Range, WI 3 ENE:  0.71"
Brainerd, MN:  0.70"
Superior, WI (Airport)  0.63"
International Falls, MN:  0.62"
Siren, WI:  0.60"
Ashland, WI:  0.45"

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low clouds and fog earlier in the day gave way to some sunshine in most of the Northland this afternoon although some mid level clouds were passing through parts of the area.  Another very mild day with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s, pretty amazing that it is still this warm considering there was a cold frontal passage that occurred Monday night.

Generally mostly cloudy sky conditions are expected through Wednesday night.  There will be an area of low pressure that is forecast to move east or east/southeast across the northern Plains and upper Midwest while a cold front moves southeast through the area on Wednesday.  Some precipitation will develop at times through Wednesday night with precipitation types of rain, snow or even some freezing rain possible in far northern Minnesota while mostly rain occurs farther south until Wednesday evening when the rain could mix with or change to snow.  Note:  Not expecting a lot of rain, ice or snow with this system with snowfall generally of a half inch to two inches possible over some parts of the area with most of that snow falling Wednesday night the way it looks now.

Also of interest for Wednesday is the fact there is some elevated CAPE passing through the area with values of around 100-300 j/kg -- This coupled with steep mid level lapse rates might be just enough to produce an isolated thunderstorm especially south of Highway 2.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s with a few spots in extreme northern Minnesota possibly falling into the upper 20s.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s with 50s in far southern areas.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  A few showers possible mainly after midnight.  Low 33 to 37.  Wind northeast around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers possible.  Perhaps a rumble of thunder.  High 37 to 42.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  26
Low:     9

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:00 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:44 PM CST