Saturday, December 3, 2016

Light snow late tonight and Sunday (Winter Weather Advisory issued for extreme northeast Minnesota)

/Issued 5:25 PM CST, Saturday, December 3, 2016/


Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5 PM today.



Water vapor satellite image from late Saturday afternoon.

Meteogram for Duluth showing the potential snowfall amounts for Sunday.  The range between the models is generally from 1.5" to 2.5".  Source:

Winter Weather Advisory for the areas shaded in purple on the map.  More information about the advisory in extreme northeast Minnesota can be found at this link.  Source:

Visible satellite image from this afternoon.  Still gray and gloomy in northern Minnesota today but there was some clearing/sunshine this afternoon in parts of central and eastern Minnesota.  Source:

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:

Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source:

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

More clouds today (Surprise Surprise) Highs were in the mid 20s to low 30s with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.  There were some snow flurries in parts of the area especially this morning otherwise it was just another dry but gray day around here.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 3)

Mostly cloudy skies with light snow developing later in the night - The snow should move up from the south or southwest.  Low temperatures in the 20s to around 30 degrees with a south or southeast wind at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday (December 4)

Light snow, snow showers and flurries across the Northland on Sunday -- Highs will be in the 30s with winds out of the south or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Mostly cloudy Sunday night with lingering snow showers or flurries possible mainly over extreme northeast Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with winds out of the southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Synopsis:  A low pressure trough will move east out of the northern Plains and across the Upper Midwest through Sunday, this system will bring some light snow to the Northland late tonight and tomorrow.  Temperatures aloft remain cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow, but surface temperatures could warm enough Sunday afternoon causing a rain-snow mix in parts of the area.

Note:  A southeast wind coming off Lake Superior will likely enhance the snow on Sunday along the North Shore of Lake Superior, especially for areas northeast of Silver Bay.  850mb temperatures around -5 degrees Celsius will be in place while lake water temperature remains in the low 40s or +6 degrees Celsius.  Enough of a temperature contrast in place to produce some lake enhanced snowfall on Sunday.

.Extended Forecast...

Monday (December 5)

One system moves out, the next one moves in.  Low pressure is forecast to track into the northern Plains on Monday which will bring some snow or a mixture of precipitation types to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, whatever kind of precipitation ends up falling should remain on the light side the way it looks now, and the best chance for a bit of precipitation looks to be from late Monday afternoon into Monday night.  High temperatures on Monday will be in the 30s with lows Monday night in the 20s and 30s.

Tuesday (December 6)

Snow showers and flurries will be possible on Tuesday as colder air begins to move into the Northland.  Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with temperatures dropping into the teens across northern Minnesota.

Note:  Low pressure tracks into southern Manitoba Province on Tuesday, this low will then move E/NE from mid to late week -- Snow showers and flurries will likely occur behind this area of low pressure but no major accumulations are expected.  The exception to this will be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where locally heavy lake effect snow is possible by Thursday and Friday especially over Ashland and Iron Counties.

Note:  Temperatures are forecast to drop into the teens for daytime highs from Wednesday through Friday with lows in the single digits, possibly going below zero later in the week.  Wind chills or feels like temperature ranging from around 5 below to 20 below zero at times from mid to late week.

Once the cold gets here it likely won't be leaving anytime soon, in fact there is a chance for even colder temperatures to push into the Northland sometime between the 11th-14th, this airmass could result in temperatures in the teens and 20s below zero at night while daytime highs struggle to hit 0.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow developing after Midnight.  Less than 1" of accumulation by daybreak.  Low 25 to 28.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Light snow and snow showers.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2" possible.  High 30 to 35.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  26
Low:   12

Sunrise Sunday:  7:37 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:21 PM CST