Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Gusty winds, colder temperatures with snow showers through Thursday; Heavy lake effect snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin later this week; Weekend snow potential; Barbaric cold possible next week

/Issued 4:46 PM CST, Tuesday, December 6, 2016/

Keeping an eye on a potential snow event that may affect northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this weekend, especially Saturday evening through Sunday morning the way it looks now.  Potential does exist for a swath of about 2-4" of powdery snow (Possibly a little more or less depending on a few things) This snow will be fluffy and not the wet slushy kind that we have seen with the past few events, a lot colder this time around compared to previous systems.

Source:  wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Light blue area on map=Lake Effect Snow Watch.

More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20watch

Next week continues to look brutally cold across the northern Rockies, northern Plains, Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region -- The image below shows forecasted 500mb heights for next Tuesday, December 13th per 12z Euro Ensemble model.  Source http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

You know you're dealing with true Siberian/Arctic air when heights are as low as they are forecast to be around the early-middle portion of next week.  Very impressive!

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Snowfall reports for December 5-6, 2016
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Grand Marais, MN 4 NNE:  8.0"
International Falls, MN 1 SSE:  5.6"
Phillips, WI 3 W:  5.0"
Lutsen, MN 3 W:  5.0"
Park Falls, WI:  3.0"

Embarrass, MN:  3.0"
Glidden, WI:  3.0"
Hibbing, MN:  3.0"
Pine River, MN 7 WSW:  2.6"
Mckinley, MN:  2.5"

Hoyt Lakes, MN 1 ENE:  2.5"
Walker, MN 1 S:  2.0"
Brainerd, MN 3 NNW:  2.0"
Hermantown, MN 3 NE:  1.7" (Official total at the National Weather Service)

Ely, MN 1 SSW:  1.6"
Hayward, WI:  1.5"
Mahtowa, MN 3 N:  1.2"
Lutsen, MN 2 WSW:  1.0"

Note:  Click on this link for snowfall totals outside of the Northland from this latest winter storm http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Falling temperatures, gusty winds and some snow in the Northland today.  Dual lows averaging 996mb extended from southwest Ontario Province to northwest Minnesota with strong 12-hour 500mb height falls of 120-180 meters covering northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today.  Snow showers and flurries have been common throughout the day with more persistent snow earlier in the day affecting far northeast Minnesota and eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Highs today occurred early this morning when temperatures were in the 30s, even close to 40 degrees in a few locations near Lake Superior.  Temperatures have been dropping since sunrise, and late this afternoon temperatures were mostly in the upper teens to middle 20s.  Winds today were out of the south, southwest or northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Note:  Late day wind chills or feels like temperatures were in the single digits and teens.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight through Wednesday night (December 6-7)

There won't be much change in our weather through Wednesday night -- Low pressure will center itself north/northeast of the Northland while a couple of disturbances and troughs rotate around that low.

Occasional snow showers and flurries will persist into tomorrow night with light snowfall accumulations of a half inch up to 2.0" possible.

Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night will be in the teens to around 20 degrees with single digits possible in western areas.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s.

Winds will be out of the southwest tonight, shifting to a more westerly direction Wednesday, then west or northwest Wednesday night.  Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Wind chills will remain in the single digits and teens through Wednesday night.

Note:  As winds shift to the northwest, lake effect snow will develop along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin, affecting Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties from late Wednesday night but more so from Thursday into Friday.  Significant snow accumulation is expected with frigid temperatures flowing over the still mild lake where water temperatures remain in the lower 40s.

.Extended Forecast...

Thursday (December 8)

Strong high pressure builds into the northern Plains on Thursday while a couple of troughs remain over our area.  Scattered snow showers and flurries should continue on Thursday with highs in the teens and 20s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the single digits and teens.

Friday (December 9)

Chilly but mostly dry with highs in the single digits and teens.

Note:  Snow is possible this weekend, and after that the hammer could drop with potentially some bitterly cold temperatures moving into the Northland sometime next week...Right now the time frame for this extreme cold looks to be from the 13th-16th but that could change in coming days.  Daytime highs could stay below zero while low temperatures range from the teens, 20s to 30s below zero around the middle part of next week.  Wind chills could also be dangerously low at times, ranging from 25 below to 45 below zero.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Breezy.  Low 15 to 19.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Breezy.  High 19 to 22.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  25
Low:   11

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:40 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:20 PM CST