Monday, December 12, 2016

Arctic air; Snow; More arctic air (Even colder temperatures expected this weekend) Wind Chill Advisory in effect for parts of the Northland Tonight-Tue AM

/Issued 4:51 PM CST, Monday, December 12, 2016/


12z European Ensemble model; 500mb height forecast valid for Wednesday morning, December 14, 2016.

An impressive shot of arctic air during the middle portion of this week - 500mb heights ranging from around 474 decameters north of Lake Superior to around 516 decameters in southern Minnesota (Incredible)


18z NAM wind chill forecast valid for Tuesday morning.


Wind Chill Advisory for the counties shaded in light blue on the map below.  More information at the link below

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:

Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:

*Snowfall reports for December 11-12, 2016*

French River, MN 6 WNW:  10.0"
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  8.2"
Duluth, MN 2 NW:  6.6"
Alger, MN 2 SSW:  6.3"
Arnold, MN 2 SE:  6.0"

Gile, WI:  6.0"
Butternut, WI 3 NNW:  5.8"
Lester Park, MN 2 WSW:  5.5"
Mellen, WI 1 NW:  5.5"
Hurley, WI 1 NW:  5.0"

Little Marais, MN:  5.0"
Ashland, WI:  4.8"
Sand Bay, WI 3 E:  4.8"
Lutsen, MN 2 ENE:  4.7"
Island Lake, MN 8 E:  4.5"

Glidden, WI:  4.0"
Moose Lake, MN 1 ENE:  4.0"
Superior, WI 3 SE:  3.3"
Beaver Bay, MN:  2.5"

Low temperature reports for December 12, 2016

Orr, MN 3 E:  -20 F
International Falls, MN:  -15 F
Bigfork, MN:  -15 F
Embarrass, MN:  -15 F
Hibbing, MN:  -14 F
Cotton, MN:  -13 F
Cook, MN:  -11 F
Crane Lake, MN:  -11 F
Longville, MN:  -9 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  -7 F
Moose Lake, MN:  -6 F
Walker, MN:  -6 F
Duluth, MN (Airport:  -3 F

***Record Event***

Record 24 snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota on December 11, 2016.

New record:  8.2"
Old record:  7.3" set in 1982

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

An area of strong height falls was approaching from the northwest this afternoon while an arctic front moves E-SE into the Northland -- There was a widespread area of light snow accompanying the front this afternoon with snowfall accumulation in the half inch to one inch range.  Highs today were in the single digits and teens with winds out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  The Duluth Airport recorded its first subzero temperature of the winter season this morning, December 12th as the low temperature dropped to -3 F.  Last winter the first subzero temperature didn't occur until January 9th.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 12)

Cold front moves off to the east this evening with arctic high pressure centered to our southwest through the night.  Light snow will taper off from west to east by early to mid evening with partly to mostly cloudy skies then expected the rest of the night.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens below zero with winds out of the southwest or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday (December 13)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Very cold! Highs will range from around zero to the single digits above zero with lows Tuesday night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Could be some flurries or snow showers around the area especially Tuesday night as another arctic front drops S/SE into the Northland.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph, turning to the west-northwest late Tuesday night.

Note:  850mb temperatures ranging from -14 to -21 C early this evening will bottom out in the -23 to -27 C range Tuesday and Wednesday as the arctic airmass moves overhead.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday and Thursday (December 14-15)

There could be a few flurries around parts of the area especially on Wednesday but overall the middle part of the week looks fairly dry in the Northland.  It will remain cold with highs both Wednesday and Thursday in the single digits below to single digits above zero, low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the single digits, teens and possibly 20s below zero.  Note:  Dangerously low wind chills should also continue Wednesday and Thursday and additional wind chill headlines will likely be needed.

...Latest on our next snow event for later this week...

Accumulating snow remains a possibility in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Friday (16th) This looks like an overrunning type event as milder air bumps into the arctic air over the Upper Midwest.  There will be a strong area of low pressure over the Rockies on Friday but this low is forecast to weaken as it moves into the Plains and eventually into the southern/eastern Great Lakes region on Saturday -- If we do get snow in the Northland most of it should fall Friday or Friday night with another batch of snow associated with that Rockies low remaining well to our south/southeast on Saturday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.  Breezy.  Very cold.  Low 1 below to 6 below.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills 15 below to 25 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Very cold.  High 2 to 7.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills 10 below to 20 below.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  23
Low:    8

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:46 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:20 PM CST