Thursday, November 17, 2016

Winter Storm Watch issued for Friday for Duluth; Warnings/Watches cover all of northeast Minnesota; Major winter storm on the way

/Issued 4:30 AM CST, Thursday, November 17, 2016/


The winter storm watch has been expanded further south in parts of the Northland.

More information at the links below.

Winter storm watch

Winter storm warning

Blizzard warning

Here's my updated snowfall accumulation map for Friday -- Adjustments are possible during the next 12 hours.

...Major winter storm to hit parts of the Northland beginning late tonight...

-Precipitation is forecast to develop later this afternoon or evening across northeast Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  This precipitation should be in the form of rain, but later this evening and during the overnight...The rain is expected to switch over to snow especially northwest of a line from near Brainerd to Ely.  A few inches of snow accumulation is possible by daybreak (Friday) across northern Minnesota, including the Iron Range and Borderland areas.

-The main part of this storm arrives on Friday as low pressure heads northeast through central Iowa and into northeast Wisconsin.

-The 00z and 06z NAM has trended southeast with the low and is also colder compared to previous runs.  The GFS model remains somewhat warmer resulting in a later changeover from rain to snow in Duluth compared to the NAM which has the changeover occurring between 7-10 AM Friday vs. around Noon or a later little on the GFS.  One other note is the CANADIAN model which had been farther SE with the low recently has shifted more to the NW with a slower changeover to snow in Duluth (Similar to the GFS) Bottom line is there is still uncertainty on the storm track and the changeover time from rain to snow in parts of the Northland.

-The potential for snowfall totals of 6" or more in the Twin Ports has increased a bit compared to Wednesday evening.

-The axis of where the heaviest band of snow sets up has also shifted slightly more to the east/southeast compared to Wednesday evening.

-I'll have more updates later today.