Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Wet snow thru Wednesday (Winter Weather Advisory in effect for parts of the Northland)

/Issued 5:20 PM CST, Tuesday, November 22, 2016/

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5 PM today.  Source:  http://www.intellicast.com/

Pink=Mixed precipitation types

Source:  http://wx.aerisweather.com/

Winter Weather Advisory information statement http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Here's my final snowfall accumulation map for this event -- Totals listed on the map are thru Wednesday.

*Generally 1" to around 3" for northern Minnesota and also close to Lake Superior.

*About 4-5" of snow for east central Minnesota and in most of northwest Wisconsin, locally higher totals an excess of 6" are possible along the Higher Terrain of the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Surface map forecast.  Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Note:  Despite the recent cooler temperatures in Duluth, the average temperature for November (thru the 21st) remains well above normal; 42.6 degrees or +11.5 degrees warmer than average.  The average November temperature has dropped 5.1 degrees, however, since the 15th thanks to the cooler temperatures.  

Note:  The warmest November on record at Duluth is 40.6 degrees set in 1899.  2nd warmest is 39.5 degrees set in 2001.  3rd warmest is 37.9 degrees set in 2009.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

An area of low pressure has moved into central Kansas late this afternoon with a secondary low over southern Manitoba Province.  A trough connected the two lows, and this trough was still out over the eastern Dakotas.  Precipitation has had a difficult time reaching the ground across the Northland today even though the radar has shown quite a bit of precipitation -- High pressure north of Lake Superior is pushing dry air down into our area while moisture streaming north is slowly saturating the atmosphere enough to allow precipitation to reach the surface in parts of the area this afternoon.  Locations that had precipitation today have seen mostly snow or a drizzle/snow mix.  Highs today were in the 30s with east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight and Wednesday (November 22-23)

Low pressure will move E/NE from central Kansas this evening to northern Illinois by Wednesday evening.  A trough over the eastern Dakotas late this afternoon will move slowly toward the east through Wednesday night.  Were looking at a rather prolonged light snowfall event in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Wednesday.  There could be a few bursts of moderate snowfall especially over southern portions of the Northland, and also along the Higher Terrain of the North Shore of Lake Superior thanks to an east wind that'll be in place through Wednesday.

Low temperatures tonight and highs on Wednesday should mainly be in the low/mid 30s, lows Wednesday night in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Winds out of the east tonight, north or east on Wednesday, north or northwest Wednesday night.  Wind speeds generally in the 10 to 15 mph range.

.Extended Forecast...

Thanksgiving (November 24)

Mainly dry during the day but snow showers or flurries are possible Thursday night as a low pressure disturbance passes south of the Northland.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s with lows Thursday night around 30 degrees.

Friday (November 25)

Mainly dry on Friday with highs in the 30s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Winter Weather Advisory*
Timing:  Until 3 PM CST Wednesday

.Tonight...  Light snow.  Snow could mix with drizzle close to Lake Superior.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Light snow.  Snow could mix with drizzle close to Lake Superior.  Total snowfall accumulations of 3-5" on top of the hill with lesser accumulation close to Lake Superior.  High 33 to 36.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  31
Low:   18

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:23 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:27 PM CST