Sunday, November 13, 2016

Warmest first 12 days of November on record at Duluth, Minnesota but cooler times ahead

/Issued 9:35 AM CST, Sunday, November 13, 2016/


So far the forecast I made back on October 31st for November has been alright but the amount of warmth we have had the first 13 days of this month is even more impressive than I thought it would be.

Currently Duluth, Minnesota is running +14.5 degrees above average thru the 12th, my forecast is for the temperature to be around +4.5 degrees above the average, so the average temperature which sits at 48.2 degrees would have to fall nearly 15 degrees by the 30th for my forecast to verify, doubtful that can happen but we shall see.  Note:  It does look colder next weekend, and after that I think will be dealing with ups and downs in the temperature department with fairly quick transitions between cool and mild temperatures for the remainder of the month.

Below are some of my thoughts from the forecast I made for November back on October 31st.

Temperature:  Around +4.5 degrees above average
Total snowfall:  Around 3-4" (~10" below average)

Summary:  There is a high amount of certainty that the first week of November will be warmer than average, it does look like the pattern will slowly change toward mid November with late November probably being the coldest portion of the month.  It's unlikely though given the warm start to the month that even with potential colder temperatures for mid-late month that it would result in a below average November but will see.

Snowfall:  Doesn't look very snowy in November but I do think will have a few minor snow events especially from mid to late month, actually the forecast snowfall totals this November look quite similar to what we got last November.

November 2016 has been record setting at Duluth, Minnesota -- Stats below are thru the first 12 days of the month.

Average temperature:  48.2 degrees (Warmest on record thru the 12th)
Departure:  +14.5 degrees above average

11 days with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees
6 days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees
2 days with a high temperature of 70 degrees

Only 3 freezes so far this month (Low temperature 32 F or below)

Coldest temperature so far this month, 31 degrees on the 11th

Note:  Were currently +8.3 degrees warmer than the warmest November on record which occurred 117 years ago in 1899 (Average temperature was 39.9 degrees)

*This month has also been very dry with just 0.01" of precipitation so far.

The top 5 driest Novembers on record at Duluth, Minnesota

1:  0.09" in 1917 and 1916
2:  0.16" in 1939
3:  0.19" in 1976
4:  0.21" in 1912
5:  0.24" in 1904

Note:  There have only been 9 Novembers since 1874 with less than 1" of snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota, see list below.

1928, 1913, 1899, 1918, 1930, 1917, 1888, 1937 and 1916.

So far this November:  0.0" snowfall total.

There is a storm system that could affect us later this week (17th-19th) and a few other systems are possible by the end of the month.  The tracks of those storms will be critical in the amount of rain or snow that they produce in Duluth.