Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Near 60 degrees, gusty winds and sunshine ahead for Thursday; Storm potential for late next week (Rain/Snow)

/Issued 5:25 PM CST, Wednesday, November 9, 2016/


Storm potential November 17-19 -- Long range computer models continue to show an area of low pressure affecting the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late next week.  The timing, track and intensity of this possible storm as well as where the rain/snow line sets up will continue to be fine tuned in coming days.  Stay tuned.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:

Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source:

Note:  Today, November 9th, 2016 will go into the books as the 2nd warmest on record at Duluth, Minnesota with a high temperature of 61 degrees.  The warmest November 9th on record is 71 degrees set in 1999.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A broken record.  More warmth, sun filled skies, gusty southwest winds and another huge upper level ridge, it is November, right?  High pressure covered the central Plains today with warm air spreading east out of the northern Plains.  850mb temperatures late this afternoon ranged from +10 to +14C across the Northland.  Near the center of the upper level ridge, temperatures at 925mb were around +26C this afternoon and around +20C at 850mb -- Incredible! Mid level heights were sitting between 576-582 dm over the Upper Midwest today, unusually high for this time of year.

Highs today were in the 50s and 60s with a southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 9)

Clear to partly cloudy with lows in the 40s but a few locations might dip into the 30s.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  There will be a cold front that moves quickly to the southeast out of central Canada -- This front is forecast to move into the Northland later tonight but no precipitation is expected as this front moves through.

Thursday (November 10)

Windy but still unseasonably mild for November.  A cold front exits to the south/east Thursday morning with high pressure then building southeast into the northern Plains behind that cold front.  Sunny to partly cloudy on Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.  Southwest winds turning to the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Extended Forecast...

Friday (November 11)

A decent amount of cold air advection will occur between Thursday morning and Friday morning.  850mb temperatures of +16C Thursday morning will tumble to -3 to -7C by Friday morning, this is one reason why there will be some gusty winds on Thursday.

High temperatures on Friday are forecast to be in the 40s which is still slightly warmer than normal for this time of year.  Low temperatures Friday night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Note:  There could be a few light rain or snow showers early Friday morning in extreme northeast Minnesota, and a few lake effect rain showers could develop along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin late Thursday night into Friday.

Saturday (November 12)

Mainly dry with highs in the 40s, but it may end up slightly cooler or slightly warmer depending on sky conditions -- The NAM is forecasting fairly widespread cloud coverage on Saturday which would limit how warm we get, but if it ends up sunnier, then highs will likely top the 50 degree mark as we get back into a strong warm air advection pattern as heights rebound as another upper level ridge builds into the Upper Midwest.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Breezy.  Mild.  Mostly sunny.  High 58 to 63.  Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph becoming west to northwest during the afternoon.  Note:  3rd warmest November 10th:  58 degrees in 2015.  2nd warmest:  63 degrees in 1909.  Warmest:  64 degrees in 1917.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  39
Low:   25

Sunrise Thursday:  7:05 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:40 PM CST