Sunday, November 27, 2016

Gusty east winds near Lake Superior with rain, drizzle and some fog through Monday; Winter storm in parts of North Dakota

/Issued 4:20 PM CST, Sunday, November 27, 2016/


Black line on the map=Storm track through Monday morning.

-Winter storm gets going later tonight to the NW of the surface low in central-western North Dakota/

-Rain east of the surface low later tonight.

-A risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this evening in parts of the central Plains.

12z NAM 500mb temperature forecast valid for Monday afternoon.  Source:

Monday's thunderstorm forecast.  Source:

Dense Fog Advisory continues this evening in parts of northeast and east central Minnesota.  More information at this link

The same storm that gives the Northland rain will bring a signficant amount of snow to parts of North Dakota through Wednesday.  More information about these winter weather headlines at the following links.

Winter Storm Warning

Winter Weather Advisory

Expected impacts.  Source:

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:

Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:

Temperature departure map for the week of November 20th.  Source:

Near to above average temperatures last week across northeast Minnesota and in most of northwest Wisconsin.

Precipitation departure map for the week of November 20th.  Source:

A few pockets with above average precipitation last week in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, elsewhere precip totals finished near to below average for the week.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 20-26, 2016

High temperatures:

11/20:  27 F/-6 degrees below normal
11/21:  30 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/22:  32 F/Normal
11/23:  34 F/+3 degrees above normal
11/24:  35 F/+4 degrees above normal
11/25:  35 F/+5 degrees above normal
11/26:  37 F/+7 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

11/20:  10 F/-10 degrees below normal
11/21:  20 F/+1 degree above normal
11/22:  27 F/+9 degrees above normal
11/23:  31 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/24:  30 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/25:  32 F/+15 degrees above normal
11/26:  30 F/+14 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.54"
Normal:  0.45"
Departure:  +0.09" above normal

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Widespread dense fog today in northern and eastern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin, but farther east into northwest Wisconsin skies were partly to mostly sunny this afternoon.  Highs today were in the 30s but in the mid 40s around the Hayward Lakes area thanks to the sunshine.  Winds were out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph with occasional higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 27)

Low pressure over the western High Plains this afternoon will lift northeast into eastern portions of South Dakota tonight -- The central pressure of the low will deepen from ~990mb to ~977mb by daybreak.

Fog and drizzle will persist tonight, and will also throw rain into the mix as it spreads south to north across the Northland later this evening and during the overnight hours.  There could be a rumble or two of thunder embedded in the rain tonight but the potential for thunder is pretty low for tonight.

Low temperatures will be in the 30s with east or southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Monday (November 28)

A deep area of low pressure averaging 975-985mb will spin over eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota and far western Minnesota on Monday.

Areas of fog and drizzle with periods of rain can be expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Isolated thunderstorms are also expected on Monday with a corridor of elevated CAPE approaching 100-200 j/kg along with very steep mid level lapse rates of 8.0-8.5 c/km moving over parts of the area.

Colder air aloft and near the surface could cause the rain to mix with or change to wet snow in parts of the Northland early Tuesday morning.

Highs on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Monday night in the 30s to near 40 degrees.

East or southeast winds on Monday at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Winds Monday night will be out of the east, northeast or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Tuesday and Wednesday (November 29-30)

Occasional snow and rain showers are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as a large low pressure system moves very slowly through the Upper Midwest -- Shouldn't be any major travel issues as the snow that does fall only accumulates to a dusting or so the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Dense Fog Advisory for Duluth*
Timing:  Until 9 PM CST this evening

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Fog and drizzle.  Rain developing before Midnight with rain overnight.  Low 34 to 38.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Fog and drizzle possible.  Occasional showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  High 40 to 45.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  29
Low:  15

Sunrise Monday:  7:30 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:23 PM CST