Saturday, November 26, 2016

Dense Fog Advisory in effect through Sunday morning; Rain moves in Sunday night (Isolated t-storms possible) Unseasonably mild temperatures the next several days

/Issued 5:40 PM CST, Saturday, November 26, 2016/


Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for parts of northeast Minnesota including the city of Duluth, this advisory is in effect until 10 AM CST Sunday.  More information at this link

There is a risk for a few thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday (Light green shaded area on map)  Severe weather is possible over the deep south on Monday with a Slight Risk (Yellow) and Marginal risk (Dark Green) for severe thunderstorms.  Source:

Clouds cleared out nicely over most of the Northland late this morning-afternoon, but it was a different story across central Minnesota where dense fog was common today.  Source:

Another pattern change is brewing.  The two images below are the projected 850mb temperature anomalies per 12z European Ensemble model.  Source:

Red colors=Above average temperatures
Blue colors=Below average temperatures

Note:  Keep in eye on the area I circled - Watch how things change between November 30th and December 6th.

The longer range computer models have been hinting at colder temperatures spilling south/east out of western Canada and the Pacific northwest and into the northern Plains and possibly into the Upper Midwest toward the middle portion of December give or take a few days.  Something to monitor in coming days/weeks.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:

Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source:

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Mild temperatures with morning clouds which gave way to a mostly sunny or partly sunny sky this afternoon.  Highs were in the 30s, a few locations around 40.  Winds were variable in direction at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 26)

Low clouds with areas of fog are on tap tonight.  Dense fog is possible in spots, and some of the fog may be in the form of freezing fog resulting in some slick roads in parts of the area later tonight.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday (November 27)

Areas of morning fog which could be dense in some parts of the area, mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies for the afternoon with a chance for some drizzle along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Low pressure moves out of the northern Rockies and into the western High Plains on Sunday before the low moves into southern/eastern portions of South Dakota by early Monday morning -- This low will be a deep one with the central pressure dropping from around 995mb Sunday morning to around 978mb by Monday morning.

A nice slug of moisture lifts north into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Sunday night with rain becoming likely from south to north during the night.  Elevated instability increases a bit as well tomorrow night which could lead to an isolated thunderstorm.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s to lower 40s with east or southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts developing around Lake Superior.

.Extended Forecast...

Monday and Tuesday (November 28-29)

A strong area of low pressure over the northern Plains will move very slowly to the east/northeast early in the week -- This system will continue to bring periods of rain to the Northland on Monday and Tuesday.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible Monday with elevated CAPE approaching 100 j/kg while mid level lapse rates of 7.0-8.0 c/km spread northeast into the Northland.

Temperatures aloft and near the surface may be cool enough to support some snow or a rain/snow mix late Monday night and Tuesday over extreme northern Minnesota and also over southwest portions of the area but no significant snow accumulation is expected the way it looks now.

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s and 40s.

Note:  Surface and upper level area of low pressure will remain over the Upper Midwest mid to late week which will cause occasional snow showers with only minor snowfall accumulations expected Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Dense Fog Advisory for Duluth*
Timing:  Until 10 AM CST Sunday

.Tonight...  Areas of fog developing, fog could be dense.  Low 29 to 34.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Areas fog during the morning, fog could be dense.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 35 to 40.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday night...  Rain developing during the evening, rain overnight.  Fog and drizzle possible.  Breezy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  29
Low:   16

Sunrise Sunday:  7:29 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:24 PM CST