Tuesday, November 8, 2016

A top 3 warmest maximum temperature possible in Duluth Wed-Thu with a gusty SW wind. Warmest first 7 days of Nov on record at Duluth and Minneapolis; 2nd warmest at International Falls; A slow pattern change mid-late Nov

/Issued 4:32 PM CST, Tuesday, November 8, 2016/

These maps look more like late summer than late fall -- Another huge upper level ridge builds east/southeast out of the northern-central Rockies thru Thursday.  Image below is the visible satellite from late this afternoon, November 8, 2016.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

Still a long ways down the road but the computer models have been hinting at a low pressure system developing and affecting parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late next week, most likely in the 17th-19th time frame.  Note:  This is over a week away and there will likely be changes in the storm track, timing and intensity (If a storm develops at all)
Some snow is possible if temperatures are cold enough to support a frozen precipitation type -- The wintry precipitation would be most likely west and northwest of the low pressure center assuming the air is cold enough to support snow.  Stay tuned.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Wednesday's high temperature.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

*Warmest November 1-7 on record at Duluth and Minneapolis, Minnesota; 2nd warmest at International Falls -- See stats below.

Duluth, Minnesota:  Average temperature from November 1-7 was 50.1 degrees.  The previous warmest was 49.9 degrees set in 1975.

Twin Cities, Minnesota:  Average temperature from November 1-7 was 55.0 degrees.  The previous warmest was 54.3 degrees set in 1975.

International Falls, Minnesota:  Average temperature from November 1-7 was 46.1 degrees (2nd warmest on record) The warmest on record is 47.8 degrees set in 1975.

Note:  Temperature records date back to May 1874 at Duluth, and January 1897 at International Falls.

Note:  2nd warmest low temperature on record at Duluth, Minnesota on November 7, 2016.  Low temperature was 46 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for November 7th is 50 degrees set in 1893 and 1874.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Another fantastic November day.  Generally sunny skies across the Northland this afternoon with mild temperatures as highs topped out in the mid/upper 50s with 61 degrees reported at Two Harbors.  A cold front did move through the Northland Monday evening but there certainly wasn't much cold air behind that boundary as temperatures were still 15-20 degrees above average today.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 8)

Mostly clear skies with lows in the 30s but 20s are possible in the typical cold spots.  An area of high pressure will be centered to our southwest tonight with warm air advection spreading into the Northland from the west/northwest.  Late afternoon 850mb temperatures of +2 to +4C are forecast to rise to between +5 and +10C by daybreak.  Winds tonight will be out of the north, west or southwest at around 10 mph.

Wednesday (November 9)

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.  Highs in the 50s and 60s with lows Wednesday night in the 30s and 40s.  A cold front will drop SE out of central Canada and will move into the Northland late Wednesday night, no precipitation with this front.  Winds on Wednesday will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Extended Forecast...

Thursday and Friday (November 10-11)

Cold front exits to the south/east Thursday morning with a trough following the passage of the cold front -- This trough should move through the area Thursday night-Friday morning and this feature could bring a few spotty showers to the Arrowhead of Minnesota and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin Thursday evening-Friday morning.  Most of the precip along the South Shore of Lake Superior should fall as rain, but in the Arrowhead of Minnesota the potential does exist for a few snow showers to mix in with the rain showers early Friday morning.  Note:  Any rain or snow that does fall later this week looks very light and quite spotty, most of us should stay dry.

Highs on Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s, lows Thursday night in the 30s to lower 40s.  Highs on Friday mainly in the 40s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest late.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Mild.  Sunshine.  High 59 to 64.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Note:  3rd warmest high temperature for November 9th is 59 degrees in 2015.  2nd warmest is 60 degrees in 1931.  Warmest is 71 degrees in 1999.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  39
Low:   26

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:03 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:41 PM CST