Monday, November 14, 2016

A few showers possible late tonight-Tuesday AM; Some sun, gusty winds and 50s Tuesday afternoon. Late week storm (Rain/Snow/Wind) Much colder Nov 19-20

/Issued 4:50 PM CST, Monday, November 14, 2016/


Image below shows the 850mb temperature anomalies for Saturday, November 19, 2016 per 12z European Ensemble model.  Note:  Yes it turns much colder this weekend across the Northland but right now it looks like it would be a quick shot of cold air with moderating temperatures already by November 21st, no were not talking about 50 or 60 degree temperatures anymore, but highs back into the 30s, maybe up near 40 degrees which is pretty close to average for mid November.

Computer models still show a storm for later this week but track differences remain.

Below are 3 possible solutions for the late week storm.  Anyone of the 3 could be right since were still a few days away from when this storm could hit.  Note:  The computer models will continue to shift around a bit but hopefully by midweek will come into better agreement.

12z GFS model

12z EUROPEAN model

12z GEM/CANADIAN model


Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:

Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Well I like to think of today as the start of a slow pattern change -- November typically is a very cloudy/gloomy month around here, and today kind of lived up to that with generally overcast skies in the Northland, this is quite a change compared to the past week or so which seemed to have nothing but blue skies.  Temperatures, however, remained on the mild side with highs in the 40s with lower 50s at Aitkin and McGregor (3 PM) Winds today were kind of all over the place with a more dominant east wind near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 14)

Mostly cloudy skies although there could be some patches of clearing at times.  Low temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s with winds turning to the south at 5 to 15 mph.  A warm front and trough approaching from the west combined with a warm air advection pattern could go on to produce some rain showers late tonight in parts of the Northland.

Tuesday (November 15)

Mild temperatures continue on Tuesday.  A cold front moves across the area, exiting to the east by late in the afternoon.  A few showers possible into early afternoon otherwise dry.  Mostly cloudy in the morning, turning partly-mostly cloudy in the afternoon.  Highs in the 40s and 50s with near 60 degree temperatures possible in east central Minnesota.  Winds on Tuesday will out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

High pressure builds over the Upper Midwest Tuesday night resulting in partly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the west or south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday (November 16)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected on Wednesday -- Might be a few showers in northern Minnesota but I think most of us stay dry.  Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Wednesday night in the 30s and 40s.

Thursday (November 17)

An area of low pressure is forecast to move out into the central Plains.  Rain chances slowly increase Thursday or Thursday night as this system approaches from the southwest.  Highs on Thursday are forecast to be in the 40s with 50s possible in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible toward daybreak.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph becoming south late.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  A few morning showers possible.  Turning partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.  High 49 to 54.  Wind south becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  36
Low:   22

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:12 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:34 PM CST