Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Rain late tonight; Wednesday starts kinda crappy but turning sunnier by the afternoon; Late week rain chances followed by much colder temperatures and maybe some snow showers up north Fri-early Sat

/Issued 4:29 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 4, 2016/

Source, http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t2&run_time=04+Oct+2016+-+18Z

Rain in western-southern portions of Minnesota this evening will lift slowly north/east through the night.  There could be a few showers that develop in eastern Minnesota out ahead of the main area of rain this evening.

Source, http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t2&run_time=04+Oct+2016+-+18Z

Rainfall totals should be heaviest out in western Minnesota with generally light rainfall amounts expected in most of the Northland but a few pockets of higher rainfall totals ranging from a half inch to one inch are certainly possible in our area.

Still watching Hurricane Matthew which could affect parts of the southeast U.S. from Florida to South and North Carolina from Thursday through Saturday.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/uppermissvly.php

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/uppermissvly.php

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  October 4, 2016

Another mild day with high temperatures topping out in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s with low 60s common along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Sky conditions ranged from partly to mostly cloudy today with thicker cloud cover across western Minnesota near a cold front which was over the eastern Dakotas at 3 PM today - Rain is also occurring this afternoon near that boundary across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota but this area of rain is in no hurry to move east.

Note:  The cold front to our west is a strong one with afternoon temperatures ranging from the 30s and 40s over the northern Rockies but it's going to take a few more days for this airmass to move into the Northland, probably won't be here until Friday the way it looks now.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 4)

A cold front will move into the Northland later tonight.  Southerly low level jet is forecast to increase to between 40-60 knots ahead of this front tonight which will help advect deeper moisture into the Northland.  Dew points this afternoon were already in the 50s which is rather high for early October.  PWATS of 0.90-1.10" late this afternoon should climb to between 1.25-1.50" tonight.  Rain will spread into the Northland from the west and south but it will take some time for the rain to reach our area but expect it to do so this evening over western-southern portions of the area, and then mainly after midnight in northern/eastern areas.

Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s with south or southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

Wednesday (October 5)

Cold front will exit northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tomorrow morning or early tomorrow afternoon - Occasional showers will continue along and ahead of this front with rain ending from SW-NE.

Mostly cloudy skies Wednesday morning will turn partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon with high temperatures in the 60s but lower 70s are possible especially from east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s possible in far west-northwest areas.

It'll be a tad on the breezy side once again on Wednesday with winds switching from the S-SE to the S-SW at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the afternoon/evening hours.

.Extended Forecast...

Thursday (October 6)

One area of low pressure will track from northwest North Dakota to northern Ontario Province between tonight and Thursday -- A cold front will be off to our east late this week while a secondary low pressure system develops over the central Plains, this low is then expected to lift NE along that aforementioned cold front from Thursday into Friday morning.  There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of this second low later this week...If it moves far enough west, then there will be some rain Thursday evening into Friday morning over parts of the Northland, however, if the track is more to the east, then much of the rain will likely miss the Northland.

High temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid 40s and low 50s over northern Minnesota with 60s across northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Friday (October 7)

A much cooler airmass will move into the Upper Midwest as low pressure exits to the E/NE.  Highs on Friday will be in the 40s with lows Friday night generally in the 30s.  Note:  The coldest 850mb temperatures of the season thus far arrive on Friday as temperatures at the 850mb level drop to around -2 to -7 degrees Celsius!

The approach of an upper level trough will likely cause some rain showers over parts of the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  Some of the rain showers could mix with or change to snow showers at times across northern Minnesota.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy early this evening with a few showers possible.  Mostly cloudy with rain becoming more widespread after 11 PM.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Showers mainly before 9 AM.  Mostly cloudy with clearing developing by the afternoon.  Breezy.  High 62 to 67.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph early becoming southwest at 15 to 25 mph by the afternoon.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  57
Low:  39

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:13 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:39 PM CDT