Monday, October 31, 2016

Gusty winds tonight and Tuesday; Mix of sun and clouds on Tuesday, dry, highs around 50

/Issued 7:36 PM CDT, Monday, October 31, 2016/

Tuesday morning sky conditions forecast to range from mostly cloudy in northern Minnesota to partly/mostly cloudy in northwest Wisconsin per HRRR model.  Source:

Tonight's weather setup.  Temperatures and low pressure position from late this afternoon, October 31, 2016.  Source:

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:

Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:

Note:  Latest date for a low temperature in the 20s at the Duluth Airport is November 7th, 1900.  This year has a very good chance at breaking this record with low temperatures forecasted to remain at 30 degrees or warmer at least thru November 7th.

There have only been 8 years since 1874 where the first low temperature below 30 degrees F occurred after October 31st.  See list below.

November 7, 1900 (Latest on record)
November 6, 1902 and 1894
November 5, 1938 and 1903
November 3, 1877
November 2, 1882
November 1, 1931

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

I'd say the weather outside fits Halloween perfectly - Gray/scary skies, misty and a tad foggy.  October ends on an overcast note with continued mild temperatures as highs were in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s, yes above average as we close out the month of October (Shocking) Speaking of which this month finishes around +4.7 degrees warmer than average at Duluth, and it was a dry month with a rainfall total that'll finish ~1.35" below average.  Only 5 freezes this month at the Duluth Airport (Average is 12)  Coldest low temperature was 30 degrees on the 9th.  Note:  I'll have a complete October 2016 climate summary on Tuesday.

A strong area of low pressure averaging 996mb was over northeast North Dakota at 4 PM today.  A widespread area of 60-90 meter 12-hour 500mb height falls were over the northern Plains in association with this storm.  There were a few light rain showers late this morning/early afternoon over parts of the Northland, and now late this afternoon finds widespread low clouds, fog and drizzle across the area.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 31)

Low pressure moves from northeast North Dakota to north of Lake Superior by daybreak.  This evening will feature overcast skies with areas of fog and drizzle.  Late tonight skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy as the dry slot associated with today's storm moves E/NE out of western Minnesota and into the Northland.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s with winds shifting from S/SE to SW.  Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

Tuesday (November 1)

High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest as tonight's storm heads into eastern Canada.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies ahead for Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the morning/afternoon hours.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday and Thursday (November 2-3)

Mainly dry during the middle of the week.  Highs on Wednesday in the 50s to lower 60s with lows Wednesday night in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Highs on Thursday ranging from the 40s in the Arrowhead of Minnesota to the 50s/near 60 degrees elsewhere.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Fog and drizzle this evening.  Turning partly to mostly cloudy late.  Breezy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest at 15 to 30 mph late.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  High 50 to 55.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  44
Low:   29

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:52 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   5:52 PM CDT