Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Gusty east winds near Lake Superior into Wed; Light rain late tonight-Wed; (Rain/snow mix possible around Hayward and Park Falls) Halloween thunder potential

/Issued 5:06 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 25, 2016/

Source http://weather.cod.edu/

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source http://graphical.weather.gov/

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source http://graphical.weather.gov/

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Mid to high level cloudiness has been increasing across the area today while a batch of lake effect clouds moved off Lake Superior along the North Shore between Silver Bay and Grand Marais.  Highs today were in the 40s with lower 50s in east central Minnesota.  Winds were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts over 20 mph closer to Lake Superior.

Surface map late this afternoon had strong high pressure of 1036mb north of Lake Superior with low pressure of 1012-1014mb over the western High Plains.  A nice thermal gradient is in place today with 850mb temperatures ranging from -12 degrees Celsius over northeast Ontario Province to +12 degrees Celsius over northwest Iowa.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 25)

Low pressure moves east out of the western High Plains and into west central Iowa by daybreak while strong high pressure remains over eastern Ontario Province.  Light rain will gradually develop tonight in western-southern portions of the Northland but it looks like it will remain dry through the night in northern Minnesota.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with east winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph near Lake Superior.

Wednesday (October 26)

Low pressure tracks across central Iowa and north central Illinois on Wednesday, this low will then move into northern Ohio by early Thursday morning.  Rain is expected tomorrow over much of the Northland although the heavier rains should be over eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin with the least amount of rain across northern Minnesota.

Note:  There could be some snow that mixes in with the rain on Wednesday over parts of northwest Wisconsin, especially around the Hayward Lakes area.  Shouldn't be any snow accumulation, however, unless the temperatures cool enough to support a complete change over from rain to snow, if that does happen then it wouldn't shock me if there was a light coating of slush on grassy surfaces for a few hours late Wednesday morning or Wednesday afternoon.

Drying out tomorrow night under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows Wednesday night in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Winds out of the east tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.  Winds tomorrow night out of the north, east or south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Thursday (October 27)

Mainly dry on Thursday as will be in between weather systems.  Highs are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Friday (October 28)

The next low pressure system is expected to pass through the area on Friday into early Saturday morning.  Could be a few rain showers with this one primarily in northern Minnesota.  Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the 40s in far northern Minnesota with 50s and even some lower 60s elsewhere.

A strong warm air advection pattern on Friday will be replaced by a strong cold air advection pattern for Friday night.  850mb temperatures on Friday are projected to range from +12 to +17 degrees Celsius, falling to between -4 and +4 degrees Celsius late Friday night.  No doubt this type of airmass change will result in gusty winds on Friday.

Note:  Another storm could affect us on Halloween (31st)  Based on the current track it wouldn't surprise me if there were a few thunderstorms in parts of the Upper Midwest on Halloween Day or night.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Windy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 38 to 41.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.

.Wednesday...  Windy.  Light rain and drizzle.  High 41 to 43.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  47
Low:   32

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:43 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:01 PM CDT