Sunday, October 23, 2016

Dry the next few days; Midweek rain chances along with cool temperatures (Rain-snow mix possible in parts of northern Wisconsin)

/Issued 4:28 PM CDT, Sunday, October 23, 2016/

The biggest weather story for the Upper Midwest this week will be the midweek storm system which should bring some heavy rain to parts of southern Minnesota, central and southern Wisconsin.  Might be just enough cold air for the rain to mix with snow on Wednesday in north central portions of Wisconsin and possibly away from Lake Superior in northeast Minnesota.

Sunday morning's weather setup (Oct 23, 2016) A fairly impressive but a quick moving low pressure system passing through the region today.  Source,

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source

Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source

Temperature departure map for the week of October 16, 2016.  Source

Above average temperatures last week over most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Precipitation departure map for the week of October 16, 2016.  Source

Near to below average precipitation totals over most of the Northland last week.

Rainfall reports for October 23, 2016

Grand Marais, MN:  0.32"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.14"
International Falls, MN:  0.12"
Orr, MN:  0.07"
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.05"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.04"
Isabella, MN:  0.04"
Ashland, WI:  0.02"

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

October 16-23, 2016

High temperatures:

10/16:  60 F/+8 degrees above normal
10/17:  55 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/18:  63 F/+12 degrees above normal
10/19:  47 F/-3 degrees below normal
10/20:  48 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/21:  50 F/+1 degree above normal
10/22:  62 F/+13 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

10/16:  36 F/+1 degree above normal
10/17:  47 F/+12 degrees above normal
10/18:  45 F/+11 degrees above normal
10/19:  40 F/+6 degrees above normal
10/20:  31 F/-3 degrees below normal
10/21:  31 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/22:  36 F/+3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.65"
Normal:  0.60"
Departure:  +0.05" above normal

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure averaging 1010mb has moved into far eastern Wisconsin late this afternoon.  This system brought some rain to parts of northern Minnesota especially before Noon.  Mostly cloudy and cooler temperatures today with some sunny breaks especially in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Highs today were in the 40s with low and mid 50s over southern portions of the area.  Winds today were out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph occurring this morning near the head of Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 23)

High pressure builds into Minnesota as low pressure continues to move off to the east out of eastern Wisconsin.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies ahead for tonight with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Monday (October 24)

High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest before it moves off to the east Monday night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected for Monday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s.  Lows Monday night will be in the 30s with 20s possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds out of the north or west at 10 to 15 mph tomorrow, turning to the east tomorrow night.

.Extended Forecast...

Tuesday (October 25)

Partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday with highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Rain is possible over parts of the area Tuesday night as low pressure organizes to the southwest.  Low temperatures Tuesday night are forecast to be in the 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday (October 26)

An area of low pressure is forecast to move east out of eastern Nebraska on Wednesday -- This system should bring some rain to eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with lesser chances for rain farther north.  

Note:  There is a chance that some of the rain could mix with snow on Wednesday in parts of northern Wisconsin and possibly west and north of Duluth.  Right now per latest model projections the surface temperatures would be quite marginal for a rain-snow mixture, but temperatures aloft do cool enough to support a mix, that combined with lowering thickness values and perhaps some stronger vertical lift might be enough despite the marginal surface temperatures to allow the rain to mix with some snow.  Doesn't look like there'd be any snow accumulation on Wednesday but things could change during the next few days.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness with some clearing possible late.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 47 to 52.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  48
Low:   32

Sunrise Monday:  7:40 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:05 PM CDT