Friday, September 16, 2016

Scattered showers tonight (Brief downpours possible) 70s Sunday-Cooler along the North Shore

/Issued 4:16 PM CDT, Friday, September 16, 2016/

Tonight's low temperature forecast.

Saturday's high temperature forecast.

Nice looking system moving across Minnesota late this afternoon.  Source,

September 1-15, 2016 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  62.6 degrees
Departure:  +4.0 degrees above normal

10 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F
1 day with a high temperature of at least 80 F

Total precipitation:  2.30"
Departure:  +0.20" above normal

6 days with at least 0.01" of rain

4 thunderstorm days

Rainfall reports for September 16-17, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Note:  Rainfall totals listed below are through 7 AM today.

Hayward, WI:  0.31"
Cotton, MN:  0.26"
Brainerd, MN 7 NW:  0.25"
Ely, MN 25E:  0.24"
Clam Lake, WI 4W:  0.22"
International Falls, MN:  0.21"

Brainerd, MN:  0.19"
Wright, MN 3E:  0.11"
Embarrass, MN:  0.11"
Duluth, MN (NWS)  0.10"
Ashland, WI 3S:  0.10"
Saxon, WI 1WSW:  0.10"
Island Lake, MN 4E:  0.08"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.08"
Cook, MN:  0.07"

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 16, 2016

Did you enjoy today's rain?  Wait, what rain?  Outside of about an hour or so of light rain Thursday evening there really hasn't been too much rain across the Northland this morning or early this afternoon, this despite a rather strong storm system which continues to track E/NE across the northern Plains today.

Only some scattered showers over parts of the area today otherwise we had partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 60s to lower 70s with dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s.  Not too much wind today generally around 10 mph and out of the south.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 16)

There is still a decent chance that will get some more rain tonight but this probably won't be a widespread event given the setup that is in place...Instead will likely have scattered showers around the area through the night as a surface and upper level area of low pressure track into the Northland along with an upper level trough and cold front.

There is some instability that has built up this afternoon with CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg but mid level lapse rates aren't very impressive, generally around 6.0 to 6.5 c/km.  Mid level temps are on the chilly side though and are sitting at around -14 degrees C late this afternoon so if thunderstorms can organize enough they might spit out some small hail stones thanks in part to these colder temperatures aloft.  Overall though the risk for strong storms is on the low side this evening but occasional downpours and some lightning will be possible in a few of the storms tonight.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected through the night with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Winds will generally be out of the south or west-northwest at around 10 mph.

Saturday (September 17)

Low pressure will exit to the northeast while an upper level trough lingers while moving slowly away from the Northland on Saturday -- Generally mostly cloudy skies for tomorrow with a few showers possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow night.  Highs will mainly be in the 60s with lows in the 40s to lower 50s but 30s are possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph tomorrow and variable in direction tomorrow night.

...Extended Forecast...

Sunday (September 18)

South winds increase ahead of the next low pressure system which will have a warm front and cold front attached to it -- Not a lot of moisture with this one but the amount of elevated instability is forecast to increase especially by Sunday night which could lead to a few showers or thunderstorms developing over parts of the Northland.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s except for 60s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

Monday (September 19)

Low pressure and cold front will move off to the east on Monday.  Mainly dry with highs in the 60s and 70s over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness, might be some clearing at times.  Can't rule out a few passing showers.  High 64 to 69.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  65
Low:   46

Sunrise Saturday:  6:50 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:15 PM CDT