Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Milder temperatures return the next few days with higher dew points of 60-65 degrees by Friday; Rain/thunder potential Thursday PM-Friday

/Issued 4:27 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 14, 2016/

Water vapor satellite image from this afternoon.  Source,

Weather setup for the next few days.

Excessive rainfall outlook valid from 7 AM Thursday til 7 AM Friday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Tonight's low temperature forecast

Thursday's high temperature forecast.

Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

September 11 - 20 time frame for the first fall freeze (Temperature of 32 F) in northern Minnesota and also in parts of northwest Wisconsin (Dark blue area on map) In other words pretty much on schedule in the locations that fell to around the freezing mark this morning.

Low temperature reports for September 14, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Brimson, MN 2 S:  29 F
Embarrass, MN:  29 F
Cook, MN;  30 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  30 F
Emily, MN 4 S:  30 F

Effie, MN 7 E:  30 F
Makinen, MN:  31 F
Aurora, MN:  32 F
Bigfork, MN: 32 F
Pine River, MN (Airport)  32 F

Walker, MN (Airport)  32 F
Cotton, MN 3 SE:  33 F
International Falls, MN:  33 F
Orr, MN 3 E:  33 F
Togo, MN:  33 F

Aitkin, MN (Airport)  34 F
Brainerd, MN (Airport)  34 F
Brule, WI 11 SSE:  34 F
Orr, MN:  34 F
Siren, WI:  34 F

Bruno, MN:  34 F
Hayward, WI:  35 F
Isabella, MN 1 W:  35 F
Superior, WI (Airport)  35 F
Hermantown, MN 3 NNE:  36 F

Crane Lake, MN:  36 F
Northome, MN:  36 F
Ely, MN:  36 F
Grand Rapids, MN (Airport)  36 F
Ashland, WI (Airport)  37 F

Silver Bay, MN:  37 F
Cloquet, MN:  37 F
South Range, WI 4 SSE:  37 F
Glidden, WI:  37 F
Moose Lake, MN (Airport)  37 F

Esko, MN 1 ESE:  38 F
Phillips, WI:  38 F
Duluth, MN (NWS)  39 F

Note:  Have to go back to June 8th to find a colder low temperature than what occurred at the Duluth Airport this morning, September 14...  Low temperature today 40 degrees; Low temperature on June 8th was 37 degrees.

Note:  Hibbing, Minnesota dropped down to 30 degrees this morning, September 14th - This is the first freeze of the fall season at Hibbing.  The average date for the first freeze is September 10th.  A few days later than normal this year but pretty close to average.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 14, 2016

Sunshine with highs in the low to mid 60s were common throughout the Northland today as light and variable winds shifted to a S-SW direction as high pressure exits off to the east.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 14)

Another quiet night of weather in our area under clear to partly cloudy skies.  Could be some patchy fog late in the night as well as a chance for patchy frost over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and over portions of northwest Wisconsin away from Lake Superior.  Not as cold tonight but still on the cool side with lows mainly in the 40s which is seasonable for the time of year...the traditional cold spots could dip into the 30s for a time late this evening.  Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.  High pressure will cover the Great Lakes tonight while low pressure along with an upper level trough move E/NE across the north-central Rockies.

Thursday (September 15)

Low pressure is forecast to move northeast out of the western High Plains on Thursday and should move into western Minnesota by Friday morning -- Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies in our area on Thursday with highs in the 60s and 70s.  The chance for rain increases from SW-NE for Thursday afternoon but more so for Thursday night.  Low temperatures tomorrow night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Friday (September 16)

Low pressure with its warm front and cold front along with an upper level trough will be moving through the Northland on Friday -- Occasional showers are expected with highs in the 60s and 70s along with more humid conditions as dew points climb into the low 60s.  Scattered thunderstorms are also possible on Friday, and that chance could increase if there is some clearing during the day which would allow for better instability to develop with CAPE possibly around 1000 j/kg, this would support a risk for a few strong storms in parts of northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin Friday afternoon-evening.

Saturday (September 17)

Low pressure and upper level trough exits to the northeast on Saturday -- Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies are forecast during the day.  Still a chance for a few lingering showers as well mainly in the morning.  Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind west around 10 mph becoming south to southeast.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

...Occasional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday...

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  65
Low:  46

Sunrise Thursday:  6:47 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:19 PM CDT