Sunday, September 25, 2016

Gusty winds, mostly cloudy, cool temps and some light rain the next few days; Nicer weather mid to late week

/Issued 6:55 PM CDT, Sunday, September 25, 2016/

HRRRX model wind gust forecast valid for Monday morning.

Visible satellite image from late this morning - A classic looking fall storm with rain east and west and a dry slot in between.

Source, Weather Prediction Center

Tonight's low temperature forecast.

Monday's high temperature forecast.

Rainfall reports for September 25, 2016
Source:  MesoWest

Note:  Rainfall totals listed below are thru 5 PM today.

Kabetogama, MN:  1.08"
Orr, MN:  1.01"
Grand Portage, MN:  1.00"
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.91"
Hill City, MN:  0.85"

Grand Marais, MN:  0.78"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.67"
Saginaw, MN:  0.47"
Cloquet, MN:  0.46"
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.45"

Brainerd, MN:  0.45"
International Falls, MN:  0.44"
Hinckley, MN:  0.40"
Pine River, MN:  0.34"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.31"

Moose Lake, MN:  0.31"
Siren, WI:  0.29"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.23"
Cook, MN:  0.23"
Isabella, MN:  0.18"

Minong, WI:  0.16"
Superior, WI:  0.12"
Hayward, WI:  0.11"
Phillips, WI:  0.10"
Clam Lake, WI:  0.07"

Temperature departure map for the week of September 18.  Above average temperatures over most of the Northland last week.

Precipitation departure map for the week of September 18.  Below average precipitation in most of the Northland while southern portions of Minnesota had well above normal precipitation totals last week.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

September 18-24, 2016

High temperatures:

9/18:  71 F/+7 degrees above normal
9/19:  73 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/20:  72 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/21:  68 F/+5 degrees above normal
9/22:  65 F/+3 degrees above normal
9/23:  64 F/+2 degrees above normal
9/24:  62 F/+1 degree above normal

Low temperatures:

9/18:  44 F/-1 degree below normal
9/19:  50 F/+5 degrees above normal
9/20:  46 F/+2 degrees above normal
9/21:  53 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/22:  51 F/+7 degrees above normal
9/23:  53 F/+10 degrees above normal
9/24:  54 F/+11 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.10"
Normal:  0.97"
Departure:  -0.87" below normal

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 25, 2016

Strong height falls and cold air advection moved into the Northland this afternoon but before this happened temperatures did warm into the 60s to lower 70s but late this afternoon temperatures have dropped into the mid 50s and low 60s.  Rain this morning gave way to partly to mostly sunny skies but more clouds than sun returned to most of the area by late this afternoon along with scattered rain showers.  Winds today shifted to the south or west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Surface map at 5 PM had low pressure of 1000mb over western Ontario Province with one cold front over eastern Wisconsin with a second cold front across central Minnesota.  12-hour 500mb height falls of 90-120 meters covered the Northland this afternoon which is quite impressive for late September.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight through Monday night (September 25-26)

Windy and cool fall weather on the way under mostly cloudy skies as a strong low pressure system at the surface and aloft move slowly east as it passes north of Lake Superior through Monday night while a deep upper level trough moves over the Upper Midwest.

Occasional light rain and drizzle will be found over most of the Northland tonight through Monday night with western-southwest portions of the area having the least chance for rain by Monday.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s with highs on Monday in the 50s but remaining in the upper 40s in far northeast Minnesota.  Lows Monday night in the 40s with 30s around the Brainerd Lakes area.

Will have a strong wind out of the west or northwest tonight through Monday night -- Wind speeds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Tuesday (September 27)

Lingering effects of low pressure and upper level trough continues on Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin along with a chance for more rain showers and drizzle while far western areas remain dry.  Highs on Tuesday in the 40s and 50s but near 60 around the Brainerd Lakes.  Lows Tuesday night in the 30s and 40s.

Wednesday (September 28)

Will finally see the area of low pressure move a bit more to the south/east by midweek which should lead to sunnier skies in most of the Northland on Wednesday but the Arrowhead of Minnesota and portions of northern Wisconsin will probably have more clouds than sun.  Highs on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Windy.  Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain.  Low 47 to 50.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Monday...  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light rain.  High 50 to 54.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  61
Low:   42

Sunrise Monday:  7:01 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:57 PM CDT