Monday, September 5, 2016

Flood watch issued for parts of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota. Showers and t-storms tonight (Heavy rain possible) Freeze/frost headlines in effect in parts of Nevada tonight; Snowed today in parts of western Montana

/Issued 5:16 PM CDT, Monday, September 5, 2016/


Severe weather outlook for tonight.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Severe weather outlook for Tuesday.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Excessive rainfall outlook from the Weather Prediction Center (Day 1)

The main take away from these outlooks is that the greatest chance for possible flash flooding will setup to the south and east of the Northland during the next few days, but were not completely out of the woods locally as there is a marginal risk that rainfall could exceed flash flood guidance thru midweek.

Day 2 outlook.

Day 3 outlook.


More information about this flood watch at this link

Significant river flood outlook valid through September 10, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Have to look close but that is snow that the radar was showing this morning in southwestern Montana (Blue areas on map) Source, WSI.

U.S. hazards map.  Signs of fall out west.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.

Tuesday's high temperature forecast.

Rainfall reports for September 4-5, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Note:  Totals listed below are thru around 7 AM today.

Cloverdale, MN 6 ESE:  1.76"
Maple, WI 1 WSW:  1.69"
Randall, MN 3 NE:  1.61"
Aurora, MN:  1.57"

South Range, WI 3 ENE:  1.54"
Brookston, MN:  1.37"
Meadowlands, MN 2 SSW:  1.30"
Sand Bay, WI 5 NW:  1.28"

Esko, MN 1 ESE:  1.27"
Makinen, MN:  1.25"
Danbury, WI:  1.22"
Breezy Point, MN 5 SE:  1.20"

Minong, WI 7 WNW:  1.18"
Bayfield, WI:  1.16"
Superior, WI (Airport)  1.13"
Hoyt Lakes, MN 2 NNW:  1.13"

Loman, MN:  1.07"
Washburn, WI:  1.05"
Brule, WI 11 SSE:  1.05"
Skibo, MN:  1.05"

Willow River, MN 1 WSW:  1.04"
Lester Park, MN 2 WSW:  1.04"
Ely, MN 5 S:  1.02"
Wright, MN 3 E:  1.01"

Floodwood, MN:  0.98"
Duluth, MN 2 NE:  0.97"
Saginaw, MN 1 SW:  0.95"
Moose Lake, MN 2 SW:  0.90"

Hibbing, MN 5 E:  0.90"
Duluth, MN (NWS )  0.86"
International Falls, MN:  0.85"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.80"

Kabetogama, MN 1 W:  0.73"
Brainerd, MN:  0.68"
Scanlon, MN:  0.68"
Cook, MN:  0.67"

Ashland, WI:  0.65"
Hayward, WI (Airport)  0.62"
Bigfork, MN 2 NNE:  0.62"
Libby, MN:  0.58"

Walker, MN:  0.53"
Glidden, WI:  0.52"
Aitkin, MN:  0.48"
Saxon, WI 1 WSW:  0.43"

Lutsen, MN:  0.43"
The Bay Of Grand Marais, MN:  0.29"

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 5, 2016

Definitely a muggy early September day with dew points in the 60s.  High temperatures were in the 70s but the area from Two Harbors and Duluth east to Ashland did hit the 80 degree mark, and a few other locations in northwest Wisconsin and around the Brainerd Lakes were close to 80 degrees late this afternoon.  Winds today were generally out of the southwest or south at 5 to 15 mph.  Surface map late this afternoon had a cold front stretching from northwest Minnesota down to central Nebraska with low pressure of 1006mb over west central Ontario Province with a few other lows over the western High Plains.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 5)

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop and become more numerous during the night especially from east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin -- That area will be near and under a strengthening SW low level jet while a cold front slowly approaches from western Minnesota.  The greatest combination of instability and wind shear also looks to be over eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight.

There should also be some showers and thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota tonight but this area will be removed from the greatest instability with the strongest portion of the low level jet (30-40+ knots) setting up just south/east of this area, but with a cold front approaching from the west there should be enough lift to generate some convection in northeast Minnesota tonight.

A few of the storms could become strong to severe tonight mainly from east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin -- Hail and strong winds will be the primary hazards but still can't completely rule out a tornado before Midnight especially around the Hinckley, Pine City areas southwest to the Interstate 94 corridor in central Minnesota.  Note:  The risk for a tornado has shifted a bit to the south compared to where it looked like it would setup 24 hours ago.

Locally heavy rainfall will occur tonight near any thunderstorm in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Lightning will also be a hazard.

Low temperatures will be in the 50s in far northern Minnesota with 60s elsewhere.  Winds will be out of the south or north at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday (September 6)

Frontal boundary should setup from south central Minnesota to north central Wisconsin on Tuesday.  The best chance for additional showers and thunderstorms should be over southern sections of the Northland or from east central Minnesota through northern Wisconsin.  Locally heavy rainfall will be possible once again for those areas.

Showers could also affect portions of northern Minnesota at times but the better chances for rain will likely setup slightly more to the south.

Highs on Tuesday will mainly be in the 70s with lows Tuesday night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the north or southwest on Tuesday and from the east or north Tuesday night, wind speeds generally from 5 to 15 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Wednesday and Thursday (September 7-8)

Not much change in the weather pattern with a frontal boundary lingering to our south while low pressure disturbances move east out of the northern Plains -- Occasional showers are possible in parts of the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday but this doesn't look like a complete washout at this time, in fact it wouldn't surprise me if parts of the area receive little or no rain from Wednesday into Thursday.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s on Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Muggy.  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible mainly after 7 PM.  Low 61 to 66.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming variable.

.Tuesday...  Still humid with dew points around 65 degrees.  Considerable cloudiness.  Occasional showers possible.  High 71 to 76.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High;  69
Low:  50

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:35 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:37 PM CDT