Sunday, August 7, 2016

August 7, 2016: Turning more humid with dew points near 70 by Tuesday. A risk for a few showers/t-storms late Monday night and Tuesday

/Issued 7:20 PM CDT, Sunday, August 7, 2016/

Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3"+ are possible during the middle of the week (Wednesday-Thursday) in parts of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.  Also the deep south could receive epic amounts of rain the next few days, perhaps around 12" or more near the Gulf Coast.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Source, Storm Prediction Center

Last week's temperature departure map.  Most of the Northland had above average temperatures last week with just a small area of below normal temperatures around the Hayward Lakes area in northwest Wisconsin.

Last week's precipitation departure map.  Above average precipitation totals across northern Minnesota with near to below average totals in east central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and in parts of far northeast Minnesota.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 31-August 6, 2016

High temperatures:

7/31:  77 F/Normal
8/1:  81 F/+5 degrees above normal
8/2:  83 F/+7 degrees above normal
8/3:  84 F/+8 degrees above normal
8/4:  84 F/+8 degrees above normal
8/5:  75 F/-1 degree below normal
8/6:  77 F/+1 degree above normal

Low temperatures:

7/31:  58 F/+2 degrees above normal
8/1:  59 F/+3 degrees above normal
8/2:  62 F/+6 degrees above normal
8/3:  59 F/+3 degrees above normal
8/4:  63 F/+7 degrees above normal
8/5:  60 F/+4 degrees above normal
8/6:  56 F/Normal

Total precipitation:  1.48"
Normal:  0.79"
Departure:  +0.69" above normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 7, 2016

Nice weather continued today under partly to mostly sunny skies -- Highs were in the 70s with a few locations close to 80 degrees.  Dew points were only in the 40s and 50s today and winds were light and variable in direction at around 6 to 13 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Tonight (August 7)

High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes tonight resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies over the Northland.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s similar to last night.  Winds will generally be out of the east or southeast at around 10 mph.

Monday (August 8)

High pressure well to our east with low pressure approaching from the west, a cold front will be attached to that low and this front will move into far northwest Minnesota by late Monday night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Monday and there is a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms in northern Minnesota mainly for late Monday night.  Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.  Dew points will increase a bit on Monday as they climb into the 50s and lower 60s so it will feel a touch muggier compared to the past few days.  Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast

Tuesday (August 9)

A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.  Warm and humid conditions ahead of this front with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s with highs mainly in the 80s.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s possible in far northern Minnesota.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday with an unstable airmass developing ahead of the cold front -- CAPE could increase to around 1000-2000 j/kg with steep mid level lapse rates along with around 30-35 knots of deep layer shear.  Low level jet out of the southwest around 25-35 knots along and slightly ahead of the cold front; Mid level winds out of the west at around 35-40 knots with 60-70 knot upper level winds over the Northland...Thunderstorm coverage looks isolated at best, but if a storm can develop it could be on the strong side Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Wednesday (August 10)

The cold front which moves through the Northland on Tuesday is expected to stall out over southern or central Minnesota and central Wisconsin on Wednesday.  Showers and thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Northland as elevated instability increases from south-north near the frontal boundary to our south.  Highs on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures around Lake Superior.