Tuesday, August 23, 2016

August 23, 2016: Warm and muggy tonight with scattered showers and possibly a t-storm late; Still mild on Wednesday but turning less humid later in the day

/Issued 4:24 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 23, 2016/

Water vapor satellite image from 3:45 PM CDT, August 23, 2016.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Late afternoon surface analysis.  Although a cold front will be moving east and through the Northland late tonight-Wednesday morning, I don't think there's going to be much rain or widespread rain associated with it, instead will likely get some scattered showers later tonight in western areas and also across northwest Wisconsin due to a separate disturbance which moves E/NE out of eastern South Dakota tonight.

Source, 18z HopWRF-ARW model

Tonight's low temperature forecast.

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 23, 2016

A warm and breezy day with highs in the low to mid 80s, it was cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior where highs topped out in the 70s.  Humid conditions also continued today with late afternoon dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Winds were out of the south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.  Weather map as of 3 PM had low pressure of 1004mb over southern Manitoba Province with a cold front over the eastern Dakotas.  There was also an upper level disturbance over eastern portions of South Dakota and far northeast Nebraska which is moving slowly toward the east.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (August 23)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance for showers or thunderstorms later in the night, right now it looks like the better chances for some rain will be found in parts of northwest Wisconsin and also in western portions of the Northland from around the Brainerd Lakes toward International Falls.  A cold front will move east tonight and by daybreak should extend from northeast Minnesota to southern Minnesota, this front combined with a disturbance moving east out of eastern South Dakota will cause some rain in parts of the area later tonight.  Low temperatures should mainly be in the 60s with south or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  The chance for severe weather in our area is very low as winds aloft are light and the amount of deep layer wind shear is on the low side of things.  There will be sufficient amounts of instability and moisture in place though so a few thunderstorms could certainly develop tonight but the main threats from those storms would be from heavy downpours and some lightning.

Wednesday (August 24)

An area of low pressure will remain north of the border while a cold front passes through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tomorrow morning -- A few showers or thunderstorms are possible tomorrow in northwest Wisconsin and also over the Arrowhead of Minnesota otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 70s and 80s.

Another muggy day on Wednesday with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin while less humid conditions move into north central Minnesota with dew points dropping into the 50s by the afternoon hours.

Partly cloudy skies are expected Wednesday night with cooler and less humid conditions area-wide.  Lows will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

Southwest or west winds are expected tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Thursday and Friday (August 25-26)

Cooler on Thursday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s under a mix of sun and clouds.  Might be a few spotty showers in far northern Minnesota but most of us should remain dry.  Lows Thursday night will dip into the 40s and 50s.

Dry on Friday with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mild and humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers possible mainly after midnight.  Low 65 to 70.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Dew points in the 60s.

.Wednesday...  Still humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Dew point around 65 degrees but turning less humid later in the afternoon.

-Cooler and less humid conditions arrive Wednesday night and Thursday.  
-Friday looks dry at the moment with seasonable temperatures around 70 degrees.
-Could be some rain this weekend but that's not a guarantee, yet.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  73
Low:   53

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:18 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:02 PM CDT