Tuesday, August 2, 2016

August 2, 2016: Spotty evening t-storms in northwest Wisconsin; Areas of fog late tonight; Warm but less humid Wednesday

/Issued 5:48 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 2, 2016/

Severe thunderstorm outlook for Wednesday night.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Severe thunderstorm outlook valid for Thursday, August 4, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  76
Low:   56

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:52 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:37 PM CDT

A few thunderstorms developed this afternoon south of the Twin Ports -- These storms moved generally from northwest to southeast, you can easily see that in this radar image which shows estimated rainfall totals from this afternoon.

Visible satellite imagery can be useful a lot of the time and this afternoon was no exception as it picked up where the cold front was located, and also the location of an outflow boundary left behind from morning thunderstorms.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 2, 2016

Warm and muggy for most of us with highs in the 80s along with late afternoon dew points ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with 50s to around 60 degree dew points found over northern Minnesota.  Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain early this morning gave way to partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with redevelopment of spotty showers and thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.  Winds today were out of the southwest, west or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight (August 2)

High pressure settles into the Upper Midwest while a cold front pushes off to the south/east reaching east central Wisconsin by daybreak.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger this evening mainly over northwest Wisconsin and in Pine County in eastern Minnesota.  Clear to partly cloudy skies later tonight with areas of fog possible late.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with a west or southwest wind at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday (August 3)

A beautiful summer day ahead under sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the 80s along with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s, so a lot less humid on Wednesday compared to Tuesday.  High pressure will move off to the east tomorrow with winds already backing to the south as the next area of low pressure approaches from the west...More on that below.

Low pressure is forecast to deepen while it lifts northeast through the western Dakotas Wednesday night -- A warm front attached to this low is expected to lift northeast and through the Northland Wednesday night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possibly in the form of one or more complexes could affect portions of the Northland by late Wednesday night as moisture and instability increase thanks in part to a low level jet out of the southwest which is forecast to increase to 30+ knots.  There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms especially across north central Minnesota late Wednesday night with damaging winds being the primary hazard.  Locally heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning will also occur in and near any thunderstorm.

Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 60s to lower 70s with south or east winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast

Thursday:  A strong area of low pressure will move east/northeast from southern Manitoba Province to western Ontario Province -- A cold front attached to this low will sweep through the Northland on Thursday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as this system moves through.

The potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms exists on Thursday with favorable ingredients in place including strong mid level winds of 40-60 knots and upper level winds of 80+ knots.  A southwest low level jet possibly over 30 knots may also develop or carry over from Wednesday night along and ahead of the eastward moving cold front.  Thunderstorms on Thursday will have the potential to produce hail and strong winds along with heavy downpours and lightning.

The biggest uncertainty the way it looks now is whether or not storms will be around Thursday morning, and if that is the case do these storms weaken/move out quick enough to allow for enough heating to make the atmosphere unstable again which would support renewed thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon-evening in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, or do storms linger through the day which allows for less heating/instability to develop.

Highs on Thursday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday night in the 50s and 60s.

Friday:  Cooler, drier and less humid with highs mainly in the 70s with lows Friday night in the 50s and 60s.