Tuesday, August 16, 2016

August 16, 2016: Scattered showers/t-storms continue this evening in parts of the Northland with patchy fog later on; Highs in the 80s Wednesday. Storm and rainfall reports from today in this post also first half of August climate stats

/Issued 6:12 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 16, 2016/

So far this month temperatures are running above average in much of the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes with some of the warmest areas found in lower Michigan and in parts of Wisconsin.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Generally above average precipitation totals so far this month across northern and eastern Minnesota with around average totals in most of northwest Wisconsin.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

First half of August climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  68.2 degrees
Departure:  +2.6 degrees above average

13 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F
5 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F

Total precipitation:  1.96"
Departure:  +0.21" above normal

6 days with at least 0.01" of precipitation
4 thunderstorm days

*Rainfall reports from early Tuesday morning, August 16, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Carlton County

1 NE of Cloquet, MN  1.28"
Wrenshall, MN:  0.84"
1 ESE of Esko, MN:  0.79"
Scanlon, MN:  0.30"

Lake County:

2.4 miles N of Two Harbors, MN:  0.36"
3 W of Two Harbors, MN:  0.35"

Pine County:

6 ESE of Cloverdale, MN:  1.06"
6 W of Sandstone, MN:  0.28"

St. Louis County:

1 NNE of Duluth, MN:  2.32"
1.5 NNW of Duluth, MN:  2.30"
2 NE of Duluth, MN:  2.26"
2 WSW of Lester Park, MN:  1.63"
3 S of Arnold, MN:  1.14"
Lester Park, MN:  0.96"
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  0.83"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.80"
1 SE of Brimson, MN:  0.35"

Burnett County:

Grantsburg, WI:  0.41"

Douglas County:

Superior, WI (Airport)  0.47"
3 ENE of South Range, WI:  0.40"
1 WSW of Maple, WI:  0.34"

Tonight's low temperature forecast.

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.

*Local Storm Reports for August 16, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*5:45 PM CDT:  HAIL.  1.50 inch diameter.  1 NE of Backus, MN (Cass County)  Quarters to ping pong ball size hail.  Hail started at 5:35 PM.

*5:36 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.50 inch diameter.  2 S of Backus, MN (Cass County)

*4:42 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch diameter.  Baxter, MN (Crow Wing County)

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 16, 2016

Partly to mostly cloudy skies over the Northland today with highs generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s with late afternoon dew points in the 50s and 60s although the Duluth Harbor checked in with a steamy 70 degree dew point at 4 PM today.  Winds today were light and variable in direction at around 10 mph.  Surface map late this afternoon shows a weak boundary stretching from west central to northeast Minnesota.  The disturbance which brought some locally heavy rainfall to parts of the Northland early this morning has moved over Lake Superior late this afternoon while a new disturbance tracks east/southeast out of the northern Plains.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (August 16)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger this evening, most of this activity seems to be concentrated over east central portions of Minnesota into far southern Wisconsin late this afternoon with not much occurring elsewhere in the Northland -- The activity in east central Minnesota should continue to move slowly toward the south/east this evening with heavy rain and lightning being the main threats out of these storms but isolated strong to severe storms are also possible with hail and strong winds.

For the overnight hours expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog developing , and some of it could be dense.  A risk for showers or isolated thunderstorms will also continue mainly over northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with a variable wind continuing at around 10 mph.

Wednesday (August 17)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Wednesday with highs in the 80s except for 70s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Note:  A few afternoon showers or thunderstorms could develop in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but coverage should be less than what occurred on Tuesday.

...Extended Forecast...

Thursday (August 18)

An area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front will move east into the Upper Midwest late this week -- Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop and affect parts of the Northland on Thursday mostly due to a warm front that will move into Minnesota and Wisconsin.  A few of the storms could become strong to severe during the afternoon/evening hours with hail and strong winds.

Looking at the convective parameters for Thursday per model guidance shows a 25-35 knot S-SW low level jet with mid level winds from the west at around 30 knots while upper level winds increase to around 100-110 knots later in the day.  Dew points should be in the 60s with CAPE ranging from 1000-2000 j/kg.  0-6 KM wind shear and effective bulk shear is forecast to be at around 30 knots.

Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

Friday (August 19)

A cold front will move east through northwest Wisconsin while a wave of low pressure develops to our southwest.  Showers are possible across the Northland on Friday with scattered thunderstorm potential in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with 80s possible in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 59 to 64.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Dew point of 60 to 65 degrees.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  74
Low:   55

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:10 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:15 PM CDT