Monday, August 29, 2016

A nice stretch of weather ahead, mild temps during the day, cool at night; Warmth, humidity and rain chances return Labor Day weekend

/Issued 5:10 PM CDT, August 29, 2016/

Looks like any shower/t-storm activity is going to remain south of Duluth and Superior this evening but with the cold front still to our west as of 5 PM an isolated storm could still develop.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.

Tuesday's high temperature forecast.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 29, 2016

A mostly cloudy start to the day gave way to partly to mostly sunny skies across most of the area this afternoon.  Once the sun came out, temperatures climbed quickly with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with mid 80s in the Aitkin and Hinckley areas late this afternoon.  It was also on the muggy side today with late afternoon dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Winds today were out of the south, west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

This evening

A cold front analyzed from northern Minnesota to northeast South Dakota at 4 PM will move toward the east and should clear the area by late tonight.  The atmosphere has recovered nicely after the storms and lingering clouds earlier today.  Mesoanalysis shows CAPE of 1500-3000 j/kg across the Northland with steep mid level lapse rates around 7.0 c/km.  Lifted indices ranged from -4 to -9 C from north to south across the area.  The limiting factors for widespread thunderstorms and severe weather this evening is the lack of wind shear as well as the weak winds aloft.  Also, the convergence along and ahead of this cold front is quite weak -- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop despite the negatives that are in place, most of this convection would occur thanks to the moist and unstable airmass that is already in place.  There is still a chance that a few storms could pulse up to near severe criteria this evening mainly over eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Gusty winds and hail would be the primary hazards if a stronger thunderstorm does develop.  Heavy downpours and lightning will also occur in any thunderstorm this evening as PWATS increase to around 1.40-1.70".

Late tonight

Turning cooler and less humid under partly cloudy skies.  Areas of fog could develop.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with winds turning to the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday (August 30)

A pleasant day with much lower humidity.  Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Sky conditions are expected to vary between clear or partly cloudy.

...Extended Forecast...

Wednesday and Thursday (August 31-September 1)

Nice weather continues on Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions.  Highs both days should mainly be in the 70s with lows Wednesday night in the 40s and 50s.  Note:  An east wind looks like it will develop on Thursday which may keep temperatures in the 60s near the immediate Lake Superior shoreline.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this evening.  Turning less humid late.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

.Tuesday...  Less humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Dew point in the 50s.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:26 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:51 PM CDT