Thursday, July 7, 2016

July 7, 2016: Showers, few t'storms tonight (Locally heavy rain possible) Lingering shower chances Friday

/Issued 6:11 PM CDT, Thursday, July 7, 2016/

Water vapor satellite image from 5:45 PM today.  Source,

Tonight's severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5:45 PM CDT today.  Source, WSI.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Heads up for next week!

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 7, 2016

A strong upper level trough has been moving east across the northern Plains today.  Rain showers affected parts of the Northland today well out ahead of this system otherwise skies were mostly cloudy to partly sunny with somewhat sunnier skies occurring over parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.  There's also been some fog around Lake Superior although this has burned off this afternoon.  Highs were in the 60s and 70s with dew points generally in the 60-65 degree range.  Winds were out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight (July 7)

The main feature of interest for our area will be the upper level low/upper trough which will continue to move east out of the northern Plains and over the Upper Midwest tonight.  Plenty of forcing near and ahead of this feature so we should see widespread coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms in our area tonight with locally heavy downpours possible as PWATS range from around 1.20-1.60" through the night.

There are also a couple of different boundaries over the Upper Midwest late this afternoon with the main one being a trough/cold front in western and southwest Minnesota late this afternoon, that boundary will push east/northeast tonight and through most of the Northland by daybreak.

The greatest instability has setup across southern Minnesota late this afternoon with generally weaker instability farther north but with stronger forcing moving in the potential is still there for a few strong to severe thunderstorms mainly in north central and east central Minnesota, possibly into parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with east, south or west winds at 10 to around 20 mph.

Note:  Expect areas of fog tonight around Lake Superior and in other parts of the Northland later in the night.

Friday (July 8)

Low pressure will move off to the east but a lingering trough remains over the Northland on Friday which will go on to produce occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.  Will dry out Friday night.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with the coolest temperatures over the Arrowhead where some fog is also expected tomorrow.  Lows Friday night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the northeast, west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

Saturday looks pretty darn nice as high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, highs are expected to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with 60s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return at times from Sunday-Wednesday, July 10-13 as a deep upper level system moves slowly northeast out of the northern Rockies while surface low pressure along with a warm front and cold front move into the Upper Midwest.  Severe weather is possible during the early to middle part of next week.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers developing.  Scattered thunderstorms also possible.  Areas of fog.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming west toward daybreak.

Friday - Scattered showers possible otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High 65 to 70.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  76
Low:   55

Sunrise Friday:  5:24 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:03 PM CDT