Tuesday, July 5, 2016

July 5, 2016: Temps in the 80s to around 90 degrees in parts of the Northland this afternoon; Scattered showers/t'storms tonight, best chance for severe weather south of the Twin Ports; Nice Wednesday ahead, temperatures back up around 80

/Issued 4:20 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 5, 2016/

Source:  Storm Prediction Center.

Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Severe weather outlook through tonight.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

High temperature forecast for Wednesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 5, 2016

It's a dry heat!  Plenty warm across the Northland today with highs topping out in the 80s with quite a few locations in northwest Wisconsin and along the North Shore of Lake Superior getting close to 90 degrees at some point this afternoon.  Dew points weren't very high though, certainly not as high as what the computer models had shown for today...We have dew points generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s late this afternoon which is a good 10 degrees lower than what was forecast 24 hours ago.  Surface map as of 3 PM places low pressure of 1004mb over far southeast South Dakota/far southwest Minnesota with a stationary front stretching from eastern South Dakota through central Minnesota to the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight (July 5)

Low pressure tracks east/northeast out of eastern South Dakota tonight while a stationary front turns into a cold front as it moves east through the Northland -- There is still a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight throughout the area although the best chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appears to be over southern portions of the Northland where CAPE has built to around 2000 j/kg late this afternoon with lower values farther north.  Certainly do have enough deep layer wind shear in place along with strong winds aloft to support strong to severe thunderstorms tonight but the amount of moisture isn't the greatest, this combined with ongoing supercell thunderstorms moving east/southeast into central Minnesota late this afternoon/evening will likely prevent any further increase in the amount of instability and moisture in our local area.  Expect mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Wind direction variable at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday (July 6)

A frontal boundary will push well to the south of the Northland Wednesday but a weak trough will remain in place over the Upper Midwest -- Although I think most of us will remain dry during the day I can't completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm, otherwise expect partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s and 80s.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Variable wind directions continue tomorrow but a stronger northeast flow should develop by tomorrow night.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday as low pressure heads into the Upper Midwest.  Doesn't look like will have to worry about any severe weather late this week but locally heavy rainfall will be possible.  Daytime highs Thursday and Friday should be in the 70s but cooler 50s and 60s around Lake Superior where some fog and drizzle could develop due to a moist onshore flow.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

Wednesday - Partly cloudy.  High 79 to 84.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

Cooler temperatures with gusty east winds Thursday and Friday; Highs in the 50s and 60s.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  76
Low:  55

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:22 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:04 PM CDT