Monday, July 4, 2016

July 4, 2016 Weather Report: Scattered strong to severe t'storms possible at times through Tuesday evening; Enhanced risk for severe t'storms Tuesday in central Minnesota and western Wisconsin

/Issued 8:02 PM CDT, Monday, July 4, 2016/

Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, July 5, 2016.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

An active severe weather day is possible Tuesday with an enhanced risk and slight risk of severe thunderstorms covering all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin -- The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms is down toward the Brainerd Lakes, Moose Lake and Hayward Lakes area and points south but this could shift a bit more to the north or possibly further south so stay tuned.

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Tuesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

The Northland was dry under mostly cloudy skies early this evening, temperatures were mainly in the 70s, dew points not terribly high generally in the mid 50s or low 60s, winds were out of the south or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving east/southeast through eastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota as of 7 PM with other thunderstorms across southern Ontario Province.

The rest of tonight:  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible mainly over north central Minnesota as the activity currently over eastern North Dakota continues to move east/southeast through the night, a weakening trend is expected as this convection moves into the Northland but a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail are possible in western portions of the area.  Lows tonight should mainly be in the 60s with south or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the entire Northland with a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms especially in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  A warm front and cold front will be moving through the area tomorrow with a potentially very unstable and moist airmass developing ahead of this system with dew points of 65 to around 75 degrees and CAPE of 2000-3000 j/kg.  At the moment it looks like the greatest instability and deepest moisture will setup south of Highway 2.  Thunderstorms that do develop have the potential to become severe with around 30-40 knots of shear; Mid level winds around 45 knots and upper level winds of 70-80 knots...Again the best chance for severe weather appears to be over east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but things could change.  Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the 70s and 80s but a 90 degree temperature is possible over southern areas.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Note:  Damaging winds of 60 mph or greater and large hail greater than 1.00 inch diameter will be the main hazards should severe storms develop Tuesday but a few supercells and a tornado can't be ruled out either.