Saturday, July 23, 2016

July 23, 2016: Flash Flood Watch cancelled for northwest Wisconsin and Twin Ports but remains in effect for Grand Rapids, Walker and Brainerd Lakes area. Power outage updates in this post.

/Issued 8:23 PM CDT, Saturday, July 23, 2016/

Radar image from 8:15 PM this evening.

The various computer models have had trouble trying to figure out how things would play out across Minnesota and Wisconsin today and tonight so who knows if this HRRR model run from 00z will be right or not.  This image is valid for after midnight tonight.  Source,

NWS hazards map -- Flash Flood Watch for the counties shaded in dark green.  More information at this link

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Power outage updates as of Saturday evening, July 23, 2016
Source:  Twitter; @mnpower

*Service to Woodland has sustained way more damage than originally thought. Restoration there may not occur until early next week.

*Most residents in Hermantown and UMD area restored.

*Call us back at 800.307.6937 to report an outage IF your neighborhood has power but your home doesn't.

*All crews working on repairing services and primary line work. 3K cust. restored Fri; 24,600 remain out.

Rainfall reports for July 23, 2016
Source:  MesoWest

Siren, WI:  0.38"
Aitkin, MN:  0.22"
Brainerd, MN:  0.16"
Hayward, WI:  0.15"
Minong, WI:  0.11"

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*2 days at or above 90 so far this year; May 6th and July 22nd.

*Warmest day so far in 2016, 92 degrees on May 6th.

*7 days so far this month at or above 80 degrees (Average for July is 11 days)

*4.32" of rain this month (thru the 22nd) +1.36" above average.

*8.78" of rain since June 1st; +1.59" above average.

*18.89" of precipitation since January 1st; +2.78" above average.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 23, 2016

One batch of rain affected far southern portions of the Northland this afternoon but this area of rain fell apart quickly by late this afternoon.  Scattered showers were moving through far eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin early this evening otherwise things remained on the quiet side.  Highs today were in the 70s to lower 80s with dew points generally in the 60s.  Winds were out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Low to Medium.

Rest of tonight (July 23)

The large area of rain in central Minnesota earlier this afternoon has messed things up a bit.  The setup for tonight hasn't changed but the timing of things has slowed down -- Will have an area of low pressure to our northwest; A warm front over central Minnesota will lift slowly north/east through the night while a cold front pushes east into the Upper Midwest.

The atmosphere has recovered and is quite unstable early this evening over western sections of Minnesota where CAPE ranged from 1500 to around 5000 j/kg with the axis of greatest instability extending from southeast North Dakota through the southwest half of Minnesota.  This corridor of greater instability should push east/northeast into parts of the Northland through the night as the warm front and cold front approach the area.  

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop and affect parts of the Northland tonight, and there still is a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms mainly in western-southern portions of the area.  Locally heavy rain is also possible as deep moisture is already present with PWATS of 1.50-2.00".  The threat for flooding has diminished though as I don't think will be dealing with any training of storms tonight but there could still be some isolated pockets of localized flooding.

Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday (July 24)

Confidence:  High.

Low pressure along with a warm front and cold front will exit to the north/east.  Expect partly to mostly sunny skies tomorrow and partly cloudy skies tomorrow night.  Shouldn't be any rain on Sunday.  Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Sunday:  5:40 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:50 PM CDT