Friday, July 22, 2016

July 22, 2016: Flash Flood Watch in effect in parts of the Northland including Duluth and Superior for Saturday afternoon/night; Risk for strong to severe t'storms Saturday PM. Latest updates from Minnesota Power in this post

/Issued 4:09 PM CDT, Friday, July 22, 2016/

Saturday, July 23 severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

NWS hazards map.

Dark green=Flash flood watch from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning, more information at this link

Light green area is a Flash flood warning which remains in effect for the Missisippi River at Aitkin and near Fort Ripley.  More information at this link

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Minnesota Power storm/power updates for July 22, 2016
Source:  Twitter

-Media update from 3 PM, July 22, 2016:

-Buzz Ryan Triathlon @ Island Lake/Duluth canceled 7/24 due to public safety concerns after storm; updates coming to

-If you have a broken mast on your home, you'll need to call an electrician to repair before we can restore power.

-Crews restored power to 1000s; 27K remain out (down from 46K) from Duluth to Brainerd.

-Crews in K'wood/UMD(1); Rice Lk Twp(2); Lkside(3), Meadowland(1) Pike Lk(1); Lakewood(1), Woodland(2) ETR 8 PM, July 24

-After completing power restoration in Crosby/Deerwood part of our svc territory, a linecrew from Western Div. has arrived at Island Lake.

Stories from the Duluth News Tribune
Date: July 22, 2016

Additional storm reports from July 21, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*1:20 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  7 SSW of Walker, MN (Cass County)  Numerous trees were down near Big Bass Lake...Including at least 130 trees on Big Bass Lake Drive.

*3:03 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  4 NNW of Snow Bank Lake, MN (Lake County)  Severe thunderstorm winds knocked down numerous trees near the Prairie Portage area of Basswood Lake right on the border with Canada.  Trees fell down near the campsite of 9 campers...Part of a group affiliated with the Boy Scouts of America.  One woman, age 39...And one boy, age 13 were killed when trees fell on them.  Two others were injured with non-life-threatening injuries.

*4:14 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  7 WNW of Barksdale, WI (Bayfield County)  Numerous trees down at the Birch Grove Campground...Trapping campers.  Four campers sustained non-life threatening injuries.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

A very warm day across the Northland under sunny to partly cloudy skies.  Highs were in the middle 80s to lower 90s with late afternoon dew points in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds today were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight (July 22)

Quiet weather continues tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 60s with 50s possible in the typical cold spots around the Northland.  West or northwest winds this evening will gradually turn to the north/east later in the night.

Saturday (July 23)

***Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms***

The setup for Saturday is one that has been repeated quite a bit this summer.  Low pressure will track northeast across the northern Plains and is forecast to move into Manitoba Province Saturday night.  A warm front connected to this low is expected to lift slowly north/east into central Minnesota and western Wisconsin by Saturday evening while a cold front moves east into the Northland by late Saturday night.

Ahead of this system expect highs in the 80s, possibly up around 90 degrees with 70s around Lake Superior.  Dew points are forecast to climb into the 60s to around 70 degrees with PWATS of around 1.50 to 2.00".  Lows Saturday night will be in the 60s

As is always the case the amount of instability that can build up will depend on how much sun/heating can occur.  At this time it looks like there will be around 1000-2000 j/kg CAPE  in most of the Northland with higher CAPE possibly over 3000 j/kg over southern Minnesota.

Deep layer shear is forecast to be in the 30-40 knot range.  Low level jet, mid level winds and upper level winds all look favorable for strong to severe thunderstorm development in parts of the Northland.

I think Saturday morning will be dry in our area, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible anytime from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

With the deep moisture returning, the potential for heavy rain does exist -- And flash flooding could develop in areas that get a few rounds of storms.

Threats from severe thunderstorms on Saturday will include large hail of 1.00 inch or greater in diameter and damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  There is also a slight chance for a tornado mainly around the Brainerd Lakes, Pine City and Hayward Lakes area.

Cloud to ground lightning will also occur in and near any thunderstorm on Saturday.

Note:  Will dry out on Sunday as low pressure exits to the north/east.  Highs are expected to be in the 70s and 80s with westerly breezes.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Timing:  Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning

Tonight - Partly cloudy.  Low 62 to 67.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph this evening becoming east after midnight.

Saturday - Increasing cloudiness.  Showers and thunderstorms possible mainly during the afternoon.  High 76 to 81, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Saturday:  5:39 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:51 PM CDT