Sunday, July 17, 2016

July 17, 2016: Spotty storms this evening; A nice Monday ahead. Rainfall reports from today and a flood update in this post

/Issued 3:48 PM CDT, Sunday, July 17, 2016/

Almost a week since the heavy rainfall event, and flood warnings remain in effect in parts of the Northland.  Source,

More information on these flood warnings at this link:

Rainfall reports for July 17, 2016

Grand Marais, MN:  0.62"
Brainerd, MN:  0.48"
International Falls, MN:  0.47"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.36
Aitkin, MN:  0.32"
McGregor, MN:  0.13"
Ely, MN:  0.11"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.03"

Latest damage assessments in northwest Wisconsin following last week's flooding

Damage to homes and businesses:

Ashland County:

Affected/Minor damage:  140
Major damage:  2
Total:  $500,000

Bad River Band:  

Affected/Minor damage:  8
Major damage:  2
Total:  $1,036,000

Bayfield County:

Affected/Minor damage:  20
Major damage:  10
Total:  $150,000

Sawyer County:

Affected/Minor damage:  112
Total:  $100,000


Affected/Minor damage:  280
Major damage:  14
Total:  $1,786,000

Damage to Public Infrastructure (Roads, Bridges, Trails)

Ashland:  $5,820,500
Bad River Band Tribe:  $3,403,054
Bayfield:  $5,397.000
Burnett:  $375,000
Douglas:  $750,927
Iron:  $11,510,000
Sawyer:  $470,000
Dept. of Natural Resources (recreation trails)  $100,000

Total:  $27,826,481

Last week's precipitation departure map.  Rainfall totals were 3-6" above normal in much of central and eastern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin, incredible.  Most of northern Minnesota including the Iron Range, Borderland and Arrowhead had near to below average rainfall last week.

Last week's temperature departure map.  Below normal in most of the Northland although portions of northwest Wisconsin and a small area in northeast Minnesota had near to slightly above average temperatures last week (Yellow and orange areas on map)

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 10-16, 2016

High temperatures:

7/10:  70 F/-6 degrees below normal
7/11:  70 F/-6 degrees below normal
7/12:  81 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/13:  76 F/-1 degree below normal
7/14:  66 F/-11 degrees below normal
7/15:  70 F/-7 degrees below normal
7/16:  78 F/+1 degree above normal

Low temperatures:

7/10:  58 F/+3 degrees above normal
7/11:  58 F/+3 degrees above normal
7/12:  63 F/+8 degrees above normal
7/13:  62 F/+6 degrees above normal
7/14:  58 F/+2 degrees above normal
7/15:  52 F/-4 degrees below normal
7/16:  49 F/-7 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.60"
Normal:  0.87"
Departure:  +1.73" above normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 17, 2016

Low pressure of 1002mb was over northern Ontario Province late this afternoon with a cold front extending southwest of that low through western Lake Superior, western Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota -- Immediately behind the cold front is a pretty strong disturbance which is moving quickly toward the E-SE across northern Minnesota this afternoon.  There were some showers and a few thunderstorms this morning mainly across north central Minnesota.  Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms have been developing this afternoon in northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin, a few of these storms have been on the strong side with heavy rain, dangerous lightning and possibly some hail and gusty winds.  Skies ranged from partly to mostly cloudy today with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.  Afternoon dew points were in the low to mid 60s so a little on the muggy side.  Winds today were out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 17)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening as a few different cold fronts move through the Northland along with an upper level disturbance.  There is enough instability and moisture in place combined with stronger mid and upper level winds and deep layer wind shear to produce isolated strong thunderstorms early this evening with possible hail and gusty winds.  Should be mainly dry after midnight under partly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s possible in far northern Minnesota.  Winds will shift to the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday (July 18)

A nice day under mostly clear skies.  Highs will be in the 70s, possibly near 80 degrees south of Highway 2.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.  High pressure moving into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes will give us this nice weather on Monday.  Winds will be out of the northwest tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with winds turning to the south or east tomorrow night.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

High pressure moves off to the east Tuesday as low pressure and a warm front move into the northern Plains -- Southerly flow will develop across the Upper Midwest with more humid conditions moving up from the south.  Should be mainly dry Tuesday with highs in the 70s and 80s with dew points climbing into the 50s and 60s.

A few showers and thunderstorms could develop Wednesday thanks to a nearby warm front and a build up of instability, moisture and warm air.  Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the 80s to lower 90s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Dew points should range from 60 to 70 degrees across the Northland.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Spotty showers possible during the evening otherwise partly cloudy.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday - Mostly sunny.  High 73 to 78.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Monday:  5:33 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:56 PM CDT