Monday, June 6, 2016

June 6, 2016: Patchy frost possible Tuesday night in parts of the Northland; Lake Superior water temperature running close to average for early June; Late week heat wave especially west/south of the Twin Ports

/Issued 5:14 PM CDT, Monday, June 6, 2016/

Lake Superior water temperature is running pretty close to where it should be during early June.  Note:  It does take a while for Lake Superior to warmup as water temperatures typically don't reach peak warmth which is at around 60 degrees until late July or August.

Lake Superior water temperature as of June 6, 2016.  Source, Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System.

Rainfall map for June 5, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Tuesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Storm reports map for June 5, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Blue dots=Wind damage reports (58 mph or stronger)

Note:  Quite a bit of wind damage Sunday afternoon-evening in central, eastern and southern Wisconsin and the two severe weather reports right over the city of Duluth; One being in the form of large hail (Walnut or Ping Pong Ball size) the other from a thunderstorm wind gust of 60 mph.

Rainfall report for June 5, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.27"
International Falls, MN:  0.19"
Hibbing, MN:  0.28"
Ashland, WI:  0.23"
Hayward, WI:  0.39"
3 E of Wright, MN:  0.17"

12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  0.40"
Togo, MN:  0.12"
25 E of Ely, MN:  0.28"
Cotton, MN:  0.34"
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  0.36"
Embarrass, MN:  0.32"

Floodwood, MN:  0.35"
10 W of Gunflint Lake, MN:  0.44"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.21"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.24"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.28"

More storm reports from June 5, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*12:45 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  60 mph.  2 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  A large healthy tree snapped from the thunderstorm's wind.

*6:33 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25" diameter.  2 E of Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  The duration of the hail event was 4 minutes.

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Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 6, 2016

An unusually deep surface low for early June was centered over far western Quebec Province this afternoon with a central pressure of 988mb!  Gusty north winds and cold air advection has been occurring today with afternoon 850mb temperatures down to +2C over southern Ontario Province to +4 to +6C across the Northland.  The amount of sun that western-southern parts of the area saw today was a little more than what was expected 24 hours ago while generally overcast skies covered areas from the Iron Range, Arrowhead and Borderland region.  Showers haven't been as widespread as expected today with most of these showers remaining over Lake Superior while a few spotty showers have been developing and moving south through parts of east central Minnesota into southern portions of northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures today were in the 50s over northern Minnesota with 60s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies.  Scattered showers ending this evening.  Low temperatures in the 40s to around 50 degrees with 30s possible in northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday:  Partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

The big picture through Wednesday won't change much as deep low pressure remains nearly stationary over western Quebec Province while a cold upper level trough remains in place over the Upper Midwest, western Great Lakes into central Canada.  Note:  There is a potential for patchy frost in the typical cold spots in northeast Minnesota especially late Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

Hot weather spreads into the northern Plains from mid to late week but the chances for this heat to make it this far east is quite low especially for areas near Lake Superior where an onshore flow will likely develop on Thursday and could continue into the weekend...If this happens then will likely be dealing with periods of low clouds, fog and possibly some drizzle near Lake Superior late this week and this weekend with temperatures only in the 40s and 50s!

Inland locations across the Northland should get into the 70s and 80s from Thursday through Saturday with muggier conditions developing as dew points rise into the 60s later this week.

Normal temperatures for June 7th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  68
Low:  47

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:01 PM CDT