Friday, June 3, 2016

June 3, 2016 Weather Report - Rain chances through Monday; Temps soar to around 70 on Sunday

/Issued 5:05 PM CDT, Friday, June 3, 2016/

Here's the setup for Sunday and it will likely repeat itself on Monday.  The image below is the 500mb temperature forecast valid for Sunday afternoon, June 5th per 18z NAM.  Source,

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Saturday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

The computer models have been at odds for a while now when it comes to figuring out the upper level pattern from the middle of next week through next weekend (June 8-12)  A large dome of 80 and 90 to 100 degree temperatures will cover the western U.S. spilling into the northern Plains next week but it appears that most of the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes will be too far east to get in on this true summer like warmth the coolest temperatures remain off to our north/east...Minnesota and Wisconsin will more or less lye between the warmest airmass and the coldest airmass the way it looks now.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 3, 2016

Low pressure of 1010mb was over eastern North Dakota late this afternoon with a warm front over south central Minnesota and a cold front in western Minnesota.  The Northland finds itself in a stable airmass well north of the surface warm front this afternoon - Good dynamics aloft combined with ample moisture flowing north out ahead of this storm has resulted in a rather large area of rain which covers most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as of 4 PM.  High temperatures today were in the 50s and 60s with a few 70 degree temperatures before the rain moved in.  40s were common around Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Steadiest rain should be confined to the evening hours with scattered showers possible overnight.  Isolated thunderstorms could develop tonight mainly over southern areas where elevated instability increases to around 100-300 j/kg.  Areas of fog especially near Lake Superior with the moist onshore flow.  Low pressure along with a warm front and cold front will be moving east/northeast into the Northland tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the south, east or north at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

Saturday:  Areas of rain -- The most widespread rainfall could setup in two areas; One across the Arrowhead including the North Shore with the other over portions of northwest Wisconsin -- In between these two areas expect generally scattered rain showers.  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible mainly over parts of northwest Wisconsin.  Areas of fog will likely persist tomorrow around Lake Superior.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior, lows will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the north, northwest or east at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  High.

Warms up on Sunday but with a cold pool of air in the mid levels of the atmosphere dropping south into our area this should set the stage for scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening hours.  Highs on Sunday are forecast to be in the 70s.

Scattered showers and cooler for Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Normal temperatures for June 4th at Duluth

High:  68
Low:  46

Sunrise Saturday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:58 PM CDT