Wednesday, June 29, 2016

June 29, 2016: Scattered showers/isolated t-storms late tonight and Thursday morning; 60s Thursday; 70s return Friday and Saturday. Severe weather stats in this post

/Issued 5:09 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 29, 2016/

A few thunderstorms have been moving through far northern Minnesota this afternoon with occasional lightning and brief heavy rainfall.

Showers and a few thunderstorms should remain north of Duluth and Superior this evening as the activity in far northern Minnesota at 5 PM today moves slowly toward the south and east.

696 preliminary tornado reports in the U.S. so far this year; the average through June 28 is 1007.  -311 fewer tornadoes this year compared to the 2005-2015 average.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

2016 storm reports map for Minnesota through June 28.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports (19)
Green dots=Hail reports (111)
Blue dots=Wind reports (104)

Note:  So far this year 234 severe weather reports in Minnesota.

2016 storm reports map for Wisconsin through June 28.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado (4)
Green dots=Hail (31)
Blue dots=Wind (148)

Note:  So far this year 183 severe weather reports in Wisconsin.

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Thursday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits:

*13 preliminary tornadoes in Minnesota this month which is near the 1989-2013 average of 15 tornadoes during the month of June.

*Below average number of tornadoes this month in Wisconsin with 3 preliminary tornado reports, the average for June is 8 tornadoes.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 29, 2016

A mild day with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny with winds out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  A cold front was located just north of Minnesota late this afternoon with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms occurring near this boundary today in far northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  A cold front will move south into the Northland tonight.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be found near this front.  Brief heavy rain and occasional lightning will be the main threats out of any thunderstorm tonight.  No severe weather is expected with generally weak mid and upper level winds over the area along with a minimal amount of deep layer wind shear.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with southwest, north or northwest winds at 10 to around 20 mph.

Thursday:  Cooler temperatures on the final day of June with highs in the 60s to lower 70s along with a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky.  A cold front will continue to move toward the south/east and should exit eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by around Noon.  Colder temperatures aloft will move over the Northland tomorrow with 500mb temperatures of around -15 to -18 degrees Celsius - This combined with around 1000 j/kg of CAPE, Mid Level Lapse Rates near 7.0 c/km and around 35 knots of west-northwest flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere could lead to a few stronger thunderstorms tomorrow mainly in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.  A few showers are also possible during the day across northeast Minnesota.

Dry weather should return by Thursday night as high pressure builds southeast toward the Upper Midwest.  Lows will be in the 40s and lower 50s.  Winds tomorrow will be from the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  High.

Mainly dry for Friday and Saturday as high pressure moves over the Upper Midwest - Daytime highs are forecast to be in the 70s with lows Friday night in the 40s and 50s, lows Saturday night in the 50s to lower 60s.

The period from Sunday through Tuesday will not be a total washout but there could be a few showers and thunderstorms affecting parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as a frontal boundary moves into the Upper Midwest along with increasing amounts of moist and unstable air.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm after Midnight.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday - Cooler.  Considerable cloud cover with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  High 63 to 68.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Skies will clear Thursday night with mostly sunny skies on the way for Friday.

Normal temperatures for June 30th

High:  75
Low:   53

Sunrise Thursday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:06 PM CDT